Damn, the way things are shaping up for Obama I may have to add FL. That would give him 338. NC might be just out of reach but he should get within 5 points there for 353. I still doubt he'll win IN or WV. I say NC would go before IN as he over performs in the South.

Obama takes Kerry states + IA, CO, NM, NV, VA, OH, FL for 338EV

Danny, you are certainly the optomist. If BO wins, it sure won't be the landslide you are predicting.

__________________

I needs government help to live.
I must be a liberal.

I don't know, it seems possible. Right now these are the state I believe to be Obama definitely no matter what: ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, IL and CA. That puts 172 in the bag for Obama right now.

These are states I believe to be Obama definately, but up for grabs if something really bad happens to Obama: WA, OR, and IA. Together this adds 25 to the 172 electorates giving Obama a total of 197.

197 is not too bad, but he needs 73 more to win. To get this Obama must look towards the places he is most likely to win if he were to campaign there.

These are states I believe to be Obama likely: PA, MI, WI, MN, and NM. These 5 states add 63 electorates giving Obama a total of 260.

This means Obama only needs to look for 10 more. To do this he must look at tossups where he is most likely to win.

These are tossups I believe are already Obama likely: CO and NH. Together this adds 13 electorates giving Obama a total of 273.

Already Obama wins based on how I look at it, but it is far from a landslide. To be a landslide Obama has to look at these states which are in his reach: OH, VA, NV, and FL. Those 4 states add 65 electorates giving Obama a total of 338. If Obama wins these states then it definately will be a landslide. It's unlikely he will win all 4 of them, but it's possible.

Based on Obama's Under/Overperformance in the Primaries I think PA, NH, VA and NC are simply tossup states. In fact I'd go as far to say I think Obama stands a higher chance of getting VA then PA, PA could easily flip, even if it's as much as 5 points discrepency in the polls on election day (Same with VA and NC). Looking at the latest from electoral-vote.com, a tie looks like a reasonable possibility. Which, as someone mentioned earlier could leave us with an Obama/Palin Pres/Veep. Would make for interesting political theatre.

It's pretty much still Obama 273/McCain 265.

In the RCP average, Virginia is now a complete toss-up that goes Obama now by like .5%.

Obama's RCP lead in PA, MI, Iowa, NM, and Colorado are beginning to put a little wind between himself and McCain.

And Ohio and Florida, both leaning McCain, are now toss-ups that McCain leads by 1%.

But Virginia is the key now. As election night gets going, if Virginia is in a dead heat or kind of leaning Obama but still not getting called when most of the other east coast states are, then it'll be an indication that things are going Obama's way everywhere else. And if the state gets called for Obama earlier than expected and he's winning by a good 3 points, then watch out Florida and Ohio.

And in the last 5 days, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio are all toss-up states, with Obama with an average lead of between 2 or 3 in those states. In Florida, Obama has seen a dramatic 9% swing in two weeks.

Missouri and Indiana were comfortably in McCain's column up to this past week, now he's ahead by an average of 1.7% and 1.6% there instead of the 6% from a couple weeks ago.

Obama continues to see some breathing space in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and now in Colorado and New Mexico, too.

Assuming the 2004 map repeats itself and Obama flips Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, he wins 273-265.

But let's say we just go with the RCP averages, and give Obama Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, too. Then we'd be looking at a 348-190 electoral college drubbing.

For now, I'm going to only add Virginia in the Obama column cause he's been holding it down longer than the other three, and that makes it 286-252, Obama.

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“The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil."-Sarah Palin, not having a clue once again about what she is talking about.

How many votes each are Republicans allowed ?

I think I'm going to have to revise my prediction once again.

Obama wins Kerry states + FL, OH, VA, NC, IN, IA, MO, CO, NM, NV for a total of 375EV.

I think there is also a very good chance he wins Gerogia and West Virginia. He'll come to within low single digits in those states.

Ignore those ARG polls, they are pretty useless and unreliable according to 538, so GA and WV don't sound right to me at all. I think he wins all Kerry states and NM, IA, CO and that's the election.It's only a matter of by how much at this point. Not one Kerry state is currently competitive.

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Yesterday, John McCain actually said that if he’s president he’ll take on, and I quote, 'the old boys’ network in Washington.' I’m not making this up. This is somebody been in Congress for 26 years, who put seven of the most powerful Washington lobbyists in charge of his campaign. And now he tells us that he’s the one who’s gonna take on the old boys' network,” he said. “In the McCain campaign that’s called a staff meeting!- Obama, 9/17/2008

Twice as many as each Democrat, because they have jobs and work hard whereas the Obaaaaamanation are hanging in coffee shops, talking about Obaaaama.

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Great Quotes from Great Americans:

"With regard to the words 'general welfare', I have always regarded them as qualified by the details of the powers connected with them. To take them in a literal and unlimited sense would be a metamorphisis of the Constitution into a character which there is a host of proofs was not contemplated by its creators."James Madison, Father of the Constitution

Hey All,

Well, I guess making predictions is all about the polling ... so ....

I have found the mainstream media tends to focus on the horse race, the national polling data and has less emphasis on the state by state polling. This seems like the data to look at, so I decided to gather the polling data from various websites and render it as a screensaver.

Here are some screenshots:







You can download an installer for the screensaver here:

http://www.cannonade.net/ElectoralCollege.html

I would love to hear what you guys think.

I thought Obaaaaamanation hung out at country clubs, sipping on martinis, talking about other people?

__________________
“The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil."-Sarah Palin, not having a clue once again about what she is talking about.

Two weeks ago Obama held a very slim lead in the electoral college at 273 to McCain's 265. Last week at this time he held the same margin, but blue states started leaning even more strongly towards Obama while several Bush states went into the toss-up column.

Assuming he holds the 2004 map down and you throw in Iowa, CO, and NM, that's 273.

But Virginia has now been leaning Obama for well over a week. By 5 points. Florida and Ohio continue to lean towards Obama as well, by an average of 3 points respectively.

Over the last week, NC, WV, IN, and MO have gone from "leaning McCain" to toss-ups. I'm going to assume McCain retains those states.

So if you give VA, OH, and FL to Obama now, he goes from 273-265 to 333-205 over McCain.

The national polls show Obama with a consistent lead of 5-6% over the last 10 days or so, but the state-by-state outlook indicates that Obama is flirting with a routing of McCain. After the polls went back and forth for a couple weeks at the end of August and early September, Obama now enjoys something like 4 and a half continuous weeks of gains. Will things tighten in these last 3 and a half weeks, or will Obama seal the deal? It looks like we might be witnessing the latter.

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“The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil."-Sarah Palin, not having a clue once again about what she is talking about.

I might have to make another prediction update and a bold one at that.

I'm increasing my minimum to 353 EV: Kerry + IA, CO, NM, NV, VA, OH, FL, NC.

I do think its increasingly likely that Obama wins close to 400 EV. States like IN, WV, MO and now the only tossups and I have reason to believe Obama will win the "lean" McCain states of GA, ND, and MT. That gives him 401 EV.

All right, time for my prediction. I'll predict that the current movement in Obama's direction will continue and intensify through election day. So I'm going to take the current electoral map:

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

And move everything in the "barely GOP" or better column to Obama if it isn't already there. Thus we arrive at:

Obama wins:

Washington (11) Oregon (7) California (55) Nevada (5) Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5) North Dakota (3) Minnesota (10) Iowa (7) Missouri (11)
Wisconsin (10) Illinois (21) Indiana (11) Michigan (17) Ohio (20)
West Virginia (5) Virginia (13) North Carolina (15) Florida (27) Pennsylvania (21)
New York (31) Maine (4) Vermont (3) New Hampshire (4) Massachusetts (12)
Rhode Island (4) Connecticut (7) New Jersey (15) Delaware (3) Maryland (10)
DC (3)

Total: 379

I'll add that this total is actually low as representation of the realignment that is happening. If the economic crisis had struck earlier in the campaign, Obama would be further ahead. I also believe he'd be further ahead if he weren't black. This is a historic election and will result in a major shift in governing philosophy for the nation, and -- dare I hope? -- a final burial of the Reagan counterrevolution.