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  #91 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2008
AJG's Avatar
AJG AJG is offline
Secretary of Defense
-(.::@o@::.)-

 
Member Since: Aug 2008
Location: Home of the Gay
Posts: 2,774

Massachusetts     United_States

Re: Election Results Predictions (Go on the record!)

I'm predicting a reverse Bradley effect and a big turnout of younger voters mostly voting for Obama. Big win for Obama.
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  #92 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2008
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ExRepublican - NeoModerate - anti-Neocon

 
Member Since: Jul 2007
Location: United States
Posts: 2,782

United_States     Texas

Re: Election Results Predictions (Go on the record!)

I predict the neocon run McCain campaign will reign with a corrupt edge at the polls in strategic key areas.
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  #93 (permalink)  
Old 10-20-2008
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Vice President
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Member Since: Mar 2004
Location: Toronto, ON
Posts: 6,922
Blog Entries: 5

Canada     United_States

Re: Election Results Predictions (Go on the record!)

Obama is holding his support at 49-51%, while McCain has enjoyed a small uptick in the last week, perhaps showing that Obama has peaked. The pollsters agree that the remaining 5% out there are primarily disaffected conservative voters, some of which are coming home to the Republicans now. I predicted a couple months ago that Obama would take it 52-47, and that's about accurate if you give 60% of the remaining undecideds to McCain.

If OH, FL, VA, MO, NV, and CO (the tightest swing states) are the last ones to get called, Obama will be up 264-189. All he would need is NV plus any other state, or any state but NV.

That McCain and Palin continue to go to places like PA, and continue to pour money into places like MN and WI is stupefying.

Obama continues to enjoy a 6%+ lead in VA, and a 4% avg lead in NV and CO. OH, FL and MO remain within the margin of error, trending towards Obama.

I continue to remain conservative about the outcome, which looks to be a solid enough win for Obama, even though he's been flirting with a landslide for the last couple weeks.

Give Obama VA, CO and NV; and just for the sake of it, give OH, FL and MO to McCain, and Obama wins 291-247.

It's just too close in those remaing 6 toss-ups to say that Obama is going to win big.
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  #94 (permalink)  
Old 10-24-2008
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Secretary of State

 
Member Since: Mar 2004
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 4,160

Canada     United_States

Re: Election Results Predictions (Go on the record!)

Just as I predicted, Gerogia is looking like its going to flip for Obama. It will go for Obama even if McCain is ahead by up to 4 or more points I think due to the black turnout. A poll came out today on RCP that has Obama up by one even.
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  #95 (permalink)  
Old 10-24-2008
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Vice President
MovieJay

 
Member Since: Mar 2004
Location: Toronto, ON
Posts: 6,922
Blog Entries: 5

Canada     United_States

Re: Election Results Predictions (Go on the record!)

Over the last week, the McCain camp said they'd concentrate on PA, OH, VA and MO, and yet McCain is spending the whole day in CO today, despite the fact they've begun to pull out of those western states and IO. Incomprehensible.

I don't know about Georgia yet, but NC continues to lean Obama, and the turnout there is crazy. Who knows?

I've got a conservative estimate showing Obama winning 291-247, but it's looking like he's going to take either OH or FL or both, along with PA. We're then dealing with a landslide if he takes MO and NC and NV.

It's fascinating that the negative stuff didn't play well this fall like it did 4 years ago. The more they cut down Kerry, the better it got for Republicans, and now the more Palin goes out there, the more people are throwing things at their tv.
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“The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil."-Sarah Palin, not having a clue once again about what she is talking about.
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