Here is a list of the races to watch next Tuesday. Anyone care to make predictions on the outcomes:

1. Virginia Governor's race (Deeds-D; McDonnell-R)

2. New Jersey Governor's race (Corzine-D; Christie-R; Dagget-I)

3. New York 23rd House race (Owens-D; Scozzafava-R; Hoffman-C)

4. California 10th House race (Tauscher-D; Harmer-R)

My predictions:

1. Virginia, Deeds is a goner, McDonnell by 10+

2. New Jersey, this race tightened tremendously in the last month, but I think Corzine peaked just about a week too early, Christie is starting to move back up slowly and the independent candidate Dagget's support appears to be softening as people realize it is a choice between voting for Christie, or having four more years under Corzine. I give this to Christie by 2-4 points.

3. New York 23rd. Two recent polls both have Scozzafava plumetting, and Hoffman in the lead. I will go out on a limb and predict that Hoffman will pull it out in a squeeker.

4. California 10th. This is a little watched race, the republican Harmer is within striking distance, but I don't think he will make it. Close, but it goes to Tauscher, the democrat. One aside however, if this race does go to the Republican (in addition to the four above) expect it to be a bit of a political earthquake through the democratic ranks in the House and Senate, with moderates becoming far more independent of their party leaders and the White House on all the major Obama policy initiatives.

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"It's a good feeling to shoot a bad guy. Something you democrats would never understand. Americans are homesteaders, we want a safe home, keep the money we make, and shoot bad guys!"

----Denny Crane

I think you are on the right track, I saw a poll yesterday that had corzine ahead by a tenth of a point and said same, christie may scratch back a point or so and they may be all he needs, when the voters get to the polls, indy or third party votes never stand up to their polling numbers, and I just don’t see them going for Corzine, so I think you are on the mark.

Deeds? Just crazy , talk about getting steam rolled by your own, IF he had any chance last week its totally gone now.


I am out here and no I don’t think Harmer has enough oomph…..and I hope you are right about Hoffman, the gop party operatives in NY need to wake the frig up.

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"The captain has turned off the `No Dubbing' sign. You are free to speak any language you choose."

I think the complete and utter lack of any of the forum's libs making prognostications is a sign that it is going to be a very good night for the GOP.

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"It's a good feeling to shoot a bad guy. Something you democrats would never understand. Americans are homesteaders, we want a safe home, keep the money we make, and shoot bad guys!"

----Denny Crane

McDonnell is a certain win in Virginia--he has a double digit lead over Deeds.

Owens wins in the district of New York--the Rino republican has dropped out of the race & Palin & many other heavy weights in the RNC are supporting Owens.

Corzine & Christie in New Jersey is the one to watch. Obama has been all over New Jersey trying to convince them to keep big spending--high taxing Corzine in office. No one can afford to live in New Jersey today--they are one of the highest taxed states in this nation--so citizens & business is leaving in groves. But there is no bluer state than N.J. With Obama & Bill Clinton all over this state campaigning for Corzine--if they lose this one--or if Christie even stays in a close race here--it will shake the democrat party to it's core.

California-10th? I will be opposite here. I think the republican will win this. Reason: Californians are mad as hell over their states spending & lets not forget they overwhelmingly voted down a tax increase recently. So they may be "finally" thinking conservative.

So I am going out on a limb here & calling 4 for 4 for the GOP.

For the really hard corp,. theres a judgeship in a very large district in Pennsylvania that’s supposed to have some state wide import as to just how blue Penn. may or may not stay for the 2010.

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"The captain has turned off the `No Dubbing' sign. You are free to speak any language you choose."

I don't think we will pull out th California-10, but let me just say I wouldn't be completely stunned if it were to happen.

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"It's a good feeling to shoot a bad guy. Something you democrats would never understand. Americans are homesteaders, we want a safe home, keep the money we make, and shoot bad guys!"

----Denny Crane

Virginia - McDonnell

New Jersey - Christie

NY-23 - Hoffman

CA-10 - Tauscher

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"I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic." - Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton April 28th, 2003

Carolina Politics Online

HOPE AND CHANGE

I think California is going to flip.

Looking at the only poll out there for this race, I am marginally more optimistic even though it is 50:40 Dem advantage. The poll has a 20% advantage in democratic party affiliation, when the district as a whole is only 18%, and the democratic advantage on election day is seldom as great as their registration advantage (particularly in an off-year election). These factors bring the democrat under 50%, which leaves room for an upset

I still don't think the GOP will win it, but I think it is likely to close enough that there will be some major recriminations as to why the party blew a million bucks on Scozzafava and didn't really spend anything on this race. A million dollar could have made a HUGE difference in this race.

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"It's a good feeling to shoot a bad guy. Something you democrats would never understand. Americans are homesteaders, we want a safe home, keep the money we make, and shoot bad guys!"

----Denny Crane

Republican sweep...

uhmmm no....that district is next to Pelosi’s, the second hand dope smoke and acid in the aquifer alone guards against any sanity developing…......IF that dist. flipped it would be seismic dude..But, I am sorry I just don't see it happening.....

as we get though the day its time to remember, Oh,and pull the plug on goober and the rest, NJ isn't the race that matters if Corzine wins, it MATTERS if he loses, he is supposed to hold as the incumbent in a very Blue 16 pt Obama state and with a Gov. whom, has spent over 30 Million dollars of his own money (outspending Christie by 3.5 to one)...he should win this, so a loss will definitely be a whopper, a win, is ho hum…...

BUT the biggest impact is the Virginia gig, Obama captured that sate by 6, he needs that as one his flip states next time, NJ will vote for e a dem in a pre. election, that not even in question , but Virginia is one he won and now appears has lost, if Deeds loses b y say over 10 pts thats a landslide period and not a good harbinger.

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"The captain has turned off the `No Dubbing' sign. You are free to speak any language you choose."

I actually refused to vote in the Virginia elections this year because both of the guys are douchebags and I wouldn't be able to sleep knowing I had 'supported' either one of them.

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3rd party?

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"The captain has turned off the `No Dubbing' sign. You are free to speak any language you choose."

Breaking: Hoffman devolving into whack-job/meltdown mode:

NY-23: [UPDATE] Hoffman Accuses Democrats of ‘Stealing the Election’ The Washington Independent

the guy ran over a bottle...thats to much

I want to know what kind of beverage it was...was it a 40? A Fanta? Coke, its been confirmed that dems drink more Coke than reps who favor Pepsi.

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"The captain has turned off the `No Dubbing' sign. You are free to speak any language you choose."