Thread: Massachusetts Senate Special Election (merger)

Originally Posted by Marcus1124

Even so, the point is that given the overwhelming advantages she started with:

- A 30+ point lead in the polls
- Repeatedly winning statewide office before
- Heavy registration advantage
- That is is "Teddy's" seat (although this was turned into a negative sentiment by Brown respectfully declaring it the people's seat)
- Party organization
- President Obama (for those that still think he is a political plus)

She should have coasted to victory, but she isn't. It is a stretch to argue that the overreach of the party in Washington has not played a signficant part in what will at best be a close race, at worst a politically stunning loss and a major hit to Obama's credibility and political capital (now that he has swooped in to try and save her)

You're right--just two weeks ago--the political talking heads were saying no way Scott Brown could win this. Coakely had a double-digit lead.

I really think what did it for Brown--was someone calling the race "Ted Kennedy's seat--& Brown replied it's not Ted Kennedy's seat--it's the peoples seat.

Coakley and her party have almost choked on their Hubris. She assumed on winning the nomination of the Democratic party the election was over and won. Even if Brown doesn't win the seat every % of votes he gets over 25% will be a hammer blow to the Democratic party showing there is nothing they can take for granted and no seats are part of a party Dynasty.

Inside Medford poll - Brown up by 10

PPP poll - Brown up by 5

PJM/Cross Target poll - Brown up by 10.

Uhm, I am sorry but anyone who doesn’t think that the loss of the liberal lions seat, a state as blue as they come, most especially in the throws of an all out full court press, ala the ‘change we have been aching for for 60 years prgm. ‘ etc. is not a game changer, is not paying attention imho.

The simple fact is if Brown wins and the bill has not been put to bed, this will ensure that those 60 votes and the 218 necessary won’t be there., unless they gut whats left, which really is a non starter.

The overriding message will be nationalize the elections, districts and state wide, run against the admin. It worked in Kentucky in a blue district for a congressional seat a couple a months ago, a not advertised election btw, but notable as the rep. challenger ran on HC the budget etc. Plus the Virgina and NJ elections.

If Brwon gets in, Obama may be a legislative lame duck from this point forward……unreal when you look back to just a year ago. He simply ignored history ala Clintons first 2 years, and his veering left and having to tack to center. (Bush’s presumption after 04 that he had ‘political capital’ to spend etc. is notable as well).

Brown has been running primarily against HC and the deficit, if he wins woe betide the ass of all whom don’t see the writing on the wall.

As far as Coakley being a bad candidate etc. now consigned it appears even by WH insiders to Creigh Deeds comparisons, it never appears that when a dem loses it’s the message, its their personality or campaign, (as if these factors weren’t apparent before hand)or they ran a poor race, the ‘people’ never seem to get turned off of their message, that’s reserved for rep.s/cons ……seems to me that as long as that is allowed to stand, they won’t get the message they are being sent, the same message was sent just last nov.. ala a tired disgusted electorate. It appears that the welcome mat has been worn out in just 12 months.

Oh and a word on the polls, an article from a non partisan perpective, crunching the numbers.



There has been a wider than normal range of polling results in the last two weeks from the Massachusetts Senate special election. This has been further clouded by a number of leaked internal polls and polling by relatively unknown and unproven pollsters, some partisan but others not. And most importantly, the rapid shifts in the race, reflected across all the polls, makes this a fast moving target. So let's take a moment to consider what we could reasonably conclude based on the data.


But no matter how you slice the data, the only reasonable conclusion is that Scott Brown has moved from well behind to a lead somewhere between 4 and 11 points.


The chart above shows all the polls we have available as of 12:36 a.m. Monday morning. That includes new PPP and Pajamas Media/CrossTarget polls released late Sunday evening. The chart also includes the leaked polls, mostly from the Coakley campaign but one from Brown as well. These leaked polls are NOT included in most of the estimates above, though they are not out of line with the rest of the data.


So what might you believe about these data? You could refuse to cherry pick the polls. That has long been our view here at Pollster.com. Our job is to summarize the trends as best we can, without partisan favor. If you do that, we get a 8.8 point Brown lead.


Perhaps you only trust non-partisan polls. Then the Brown lead is 6.8 points.


Maybe you are a Dem, who doesn't trust the Republican pollsters. Then Brown leads by 6.5 points.


Or you are a Dem who doesn't trust the non-partisan pollsters either and who does believe in the leaks from the Coakley campaign. Then Brown's lead is 3.8 points. (This is the only estimate that includes the leaks.)


Pollster.com: What to believe about Massachusetts Senate Polls

Should Brown win the Republican party had better wise up and realize they will not gain and hold power by pretending to govern or by being the party of no. They will have to govern for the people, we are watching and millions of us spread the news every minute of every day, politicians are no longer in control of the message.

Wow, I can't believe I am going to make this prediction, it boggles the mind...Scott Brown is going to win tomorrow.

I'm sure as hell voting Brown tomorrow, and am proud to do so.

OK, my prediction, Coakley 51%, Brown 47%, Kennedy 2%

Originally Posted by goober

OK, my prediction, Coakley 51%, Brown 47%, Kennedy 2%

is that after the months of wrangling and the Dem election board officials throwing it to him?

you do realize as well goober that even ceding 47% to brown is a confession that things aint going to well for ye old dem party and this is just symptomatic of whats going on nationwide right?

BREAKING NEWS: Teacher phone bank volunteers--fail to show for Coakely, on Monday eve of election day.

Coakley phone bank: No one showed | Washington Examiner

I think Brown is going to win.

MORE BREAKING NEWS: Coakley's husbands union & retired officer from the Cambridge police department has endorsed Scott Brown.

Coakley Senate Candidate Husband's Union Endorses Scott Brown Latest Poll | Before It's News