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She'll Run and Win
She'll Run and Lose
She''ll Run but not be Nominated
She Won't Run
I'd say its about 50-50 that she either won't run or she'll run and won't win the nomination.
If she runs and does win the nomination I will admit we are officially living in Bizarro world.
"It's no exaggeration to say that the undecideds could go one way or another." - George W. Bush
I don't know. I really don't know.
I think she loves the spotlight, that's for sure. And I think she sees herself as a hotter, more attractive Thatcherite type.
Between her and Huckabee, I'd have to say the base would probably move towards her, but I think the rest of the party, the more moderate voters, would be inclined to swing towards Romney or Thune or Pawlenty.
For the sake of a great debate that would actually make the country think for a change, I'd love if Ron Paul ran again. The guy's been all over the news and the web over the past year, and everything he's saying about the Federal Reserve system and the foreign policy is resonating with people. Larry King, MSNBC, CNBC, FOX, Bill Maher, late-nigh tv, talk radio; Paul goes everywhere. He doesn't discriminate. He's the only politician I know that goes on Maddow one day, and Beck the next, and he forces them, no matter how partisan they are, to be inclined to shed their partisanship and be reasonable for a change.
The problem with Palin is that she avoids anything that challenges her, and she's been avoiding big cities, and that's where the people live.
If her internal poll numbers show that indie voters are giving her a look, then she'll run and she'll get the nomination; but if indie voters have it cemented in their minds that she's still a loon, than forget it, she won't run.
That she's not attending CPAC says to me that she's not going to run. The support just isn't there beyond the base.
I wouldn't rule her out. I think she has an ego that is much greater than her intellect. Whether or not she wins the nomination really depends on which way the GOP decides to turn. If the Republicans decide to follow their rhetoric and go hard right, then I believe she has a chance. She is unbelievably popular with her crowd and her crowd simply ignores any of her negatives. In some ways it could be similar to 1964, but in no way do I mean to say she is equal in character or intellect as Goldwater. Even so, Barry Goldwater didn't have a snowball's chance in Hell of winning the election, that didn't stop the convention from nominating him.
It really depends more on the party than her. I do believe she is very ambitious and would seek the nomination if it served her purpose at the time. She is a very formidable speaker who knows how to work a crowd.
I am a Democrat, but I do believe in two parties hopefully cooperating for the common good. If the Republicans nominate Palin, it will show that they are only interested in a very narrow and divisive path for their party, maybe good in the short turn for Democrats, but not good for the country.
However, nothing we say here will have any real effect on what really happens.
We shall see.
I think she'll run, but not for the nomination. What I mean is I think she'll set up a PAC, will fund-raise, and may even enter the first couple of primaries. She'll fund-raise primarily to pay off prior campaign debt, and set up a war chest for a future political office, but there's no way she'll get the nomination. I think it's more likely that she'll be appointed the next GOP Chair as she'll be able to swindle (oops, I mean fund raise) tons of dollars for the GOP.
As far as getting the nomination, Sarah Palin is kryptonite. The GOP won’t let her get anywhere near it…
I have reserved judgement on Sarah Palin. However, my overall view of her currently is that she is a smart, charismatic, conservative, but a relatively lazy on intellectually. I think she is very capable of being a genuinely thoughtful conservative, but as of yet, she hasn't put in the time or effort to do so. By this I mean, she largely comes down on the right position on most issues, but has failed to fully learn and thus articulate the most sensible case for those positions.
Could she do this, absolutely, I think she has the intelligence and the instincts for it. My worry is that she has coasted on her raw political talent and charisma for so long, she may be too prone to taking the easy rode.
"It's a good feeling to shoot a bad guy. Something you democrats would never understand. Americans are homesteaders, we want a safe home, keep the money we make, and shoot bad guys!"
Palin's polling has unusual characteristics, she is immensely popular within the Republican Party, but her popularity ends at the Republican border, once you get into Independent territory she is regarded as somehow not right, and that's long before you get into the blue regions. She might win the GOP nomination, but in the general election she's death warmed over.
It's an interesting dynamic, how parties can pick candidates in primaries that just don't have what the general electorate wants. I think Romney would have beaten Obama or Clinton, McCain just isn't the kind of guy who you imagine in a leadership role, he's a sidekick, and Kerry had(still has) a certain awkwardness that people find off putting.
What we saw in the interviews was one of those rare moments when the media actually conveys truth, she really didn't have a clue when it came to a whole lot of issues.
If was was a democrat strategist I’d keep a low level baiting of Sarah to keep her talking and attract the hard right narrow minded voters. Then she would get the nomination and go down in flames once the public got her measure as the candidate.
The best part is that she would retain her credibility with her base and stand a good chance of repeating the crash and burn in 2016.
I always find it strange that only reasonable people agree with me.