Thread: Predictions Time

Dems will hold control over both houses (repubs get gains but not enough) and we have 4 more years of grid lock until obama gets re elected for the right doesnt have any "rock stars" nor an articulate plan to unseat this insanity. And the country continues down this path of craziness....

I predict that between now and November a formerly unheard of Republican congressman will do or say something really, really stupid and the resultant fallout will be Republican losses in many of the principle races. Republicans will pick up no more than 10 seats in the House and will lose 2 in the Senate. The party will then blame George Bush for the failure.

Really, though, I don't see a huge swing for Republicans. My district (AZ8) is likely to go Republican for a change and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Republicans end up with a majority but I'll be surprised if they top out at more than 225. There are, I believe, 12 open Senate seats and I suspect that Republicans will take 7. I wouldn't be surprised to see Reid and Boxer lose their seats but I figure the Republicans end up at 47 seats in the Senate.

Marcus, I highly doubt we're going to see anywhere near the number of House seats switch parties that you're predicting. That would be the biggest House landslide in US history! The factors just aren't the same as they were in 1994 when the GOP picked up 54 seats. I certainly think they will win a swag, but I think they'll fall a couple short of re-taking the house; probably agonisingly short. Remember, there's a couple of House seats that are currently held by the GOP will are a virtual lock to go Dem in Nov, such as Delaware, Hawaii and Louisiana. I think the GOP will also gain 6-7 senate seats, but the senate realistically isn't in play. The GOP will also pick up quite a few Governorships (prob 6-7 again) too. In all honesty, I think the Dems should be focussing more on the Governors races, as they will be critical with the redistribution in those states where the GOP control both Houses. Despite the general public mood, the GOP are doing their best to sabotage their chances - take the Colrado gubernatorial race for example. The GOP have also nominated candidates in other states that will be hard for much of the general public to swallow, such as Sharon Angle in Nevada, and Dino Rossi in Washington. That's one of the reasons that I think the GOP gains won't be anywhere near as big as 94. The other reasons are that the Dems hold a massive $ advantage at the moment, and they also hold a registered voter advantage as a result of '08, particularly in swing states like PA and Ohio.

noahath
Marcus, I highly doubt we're going to see anywhere near the number of House seats switch parties that you're predicting. That would be the biggest House landslide in US history! The factors just aren't the same as they were in 1994 when the GOP picked up 54 seats. I certainly think they will win a swag, but I think they'll fall a couple short of re-taking the house; probably agonisingly short. Remember, there's a couple of House seats that are currently held by the GOP will are a virtual lock to go Dem in Nov, such as Delaware, Hawaii and Louisiana. I think the GOP will also gain 6-7 senate seats, but the senate realistically isn't in play. The GOP will also pick up quite a few Governorships (prob 6-7 again) too. In all honesty, I think the Dems should be focussing more on the Governors races, as they will be critical with the redistribution in those states where the GOP control both Houses. Despite the general public mood, the GOP are doing their best to sabotage their chances - take the Colrado gubernatorial race for example. The GOP have also nominated candidates in other states that will be hard for much of the general public to swallow, such as Sharon Angle in Nevada, and Dino Rossi in Washington. That's one of the reasons that I think the GOP gains won't be anywhere near as big as 94. The other reasons are that the Dems hold a massive $ advantage at the moment, and they also hold a registered voter advantage as a result of '08, particularly in swing states like PA and Ohio.

Money means little in genuine wave elections, which is what this is shaping up to be.

As for it not being like 94, well, here are a few actual differnces that bode ill for the democrats:
1. Generic ballot is better for Republicans now that it was at this stage in 1994
2. In 1994 Republicans were faced with the uphill battle of having to gain new ground...winning seats that they had literally not held in the lifespan of most voters. This time all they have to do is to take back seats that they have held as recently as 4 years ago
3. Pay attention to ACTUAL voters, not registered voters. Despite the voter registration advantage, the ACTUAL ration of Republicans to Democrats that turned out in the primaries this year was the best showing for the Republicans in the last decade overall (better even than in 2000, 2002, and 2004 when they won the House). BTW, this supposed registration advantage had very little to do with the 2008 election results. The overwhelming portion of the differences in voting patterns from 2004 to 2008 came not from any partiuclar change in the composition of the electorate (which would have been the case if it were a result of massive registration surges by the democrats), but rather because of a huge shift of self-identified independents away from Republicans. Guess what the weight of current polling (as well as actual election results in primaries) is showing has happened to that? Not only has the democratic lead among independents they enjoyed in 2006 and 2008 evaporated, Republicans are doing better among independents than at any time in the last decade.

I think we will come up just short in the house by 5-6 and frankly I don't have an issue with that, in fact politically it may be an advantage for 2012.

I think we get 5 in the senate.

Marcus, the gubernatorial races are going to be a rep. gain, big time, I have looked and read, the planets are aligned imho.

I don't know what to predict .. I just don't.

Based on Obama's first two years, however, we need to reduce the Dems' power in Congress so that at the very least Ruling Class-blocking fillibusters can be had.

But I don't want Congress to be reshaped into something that cannot heroically act.

I hope that moderates will take over both the Dems and the Repubs and that liberals and conservatives will be banished for awhile.

Hopefully the masses are angry enough to do this.

But I don't know how many moderates are running.

So I hope there is a moderate mandate "warning" that is given to the winners.

Twice since the Civil War has a president picked up seats two years in.
I don't see that happening, I see some backlash from 2008, where the Democrats were picking up the seats in areas where the party balance was close or even slightly Republican, these will be easy pickings for the GOP.
The worst damage has been mitigated by the TeaParty, that have pushed some super far right wackos onto the ballot, (Does Harry Reid thank his lucky stars for Sharron Angle?).

I see both houses close and most likely one house Dem, the other GOP.



And as the election gets closer, things will tighten up, and there are a lot of things that could happen.
The economy is getting better according to the numbers, typically it takes 5 months of better numbers before people "feel" better about the economy, you could get some of that, you could get the body of Osama Bin Laden , found after a hellfire missile attack.
You could have a successful terrorist attack, another environmental disaster, there's a lot can happen between mouth and morsel.

i say repubs finish strong

I'm saying Republicans come away with a slim majority in the house and fall short of taking the Senate by maybe 47-53. Look for a couple Democrat Senators that are up for election in 2012 to become a bit more Conservative, perhaps even switch parties.

I predict that voters will choose poorly.

GOP picks up 50 seats in the House. The Senate, too close to call.

The GOP has to thread the needle of stopping the sucking chest wound Obama has created, without getting the burden of leadership while Obama has the veto pen.

Republicans are polling now better than at any point so far this year, and that's not a good thing since it could mean they've peaked too soon while most voters are still enjoying the summer and not really paying attention until after Labor Day.

It all depends who frames the argument better. If the Democrats can frame an argument around what the Teabagger candidates are saying in order to make the rest of the GOP have to apologize and re-iterate and re-interpret every stupid thing that comes out of the mouths of Buck, Angle, Paul and others, than the GOP won't make any headway as the independents will once again flock to the Democrats, who seem like a safe haven in the center.

But if the GOP can gain ground on their own hypocritical argument that gov't sucks and is good for nothing, therefore they should be elected in order to continue proving that, than the independents will go there out of sheer ignorance and stupidity for a side that is only standing up for the richest 5% of the country, who will see their Bush tax cuts expire in January.

That's going to be the huge issue in the fall, too: the tax policy debate. It goes this way 1) Obama wants to cut taxes further for the bottom 95% come January but let them expire on the top 5%, and 2) the GOP wants to get it inside everyone's head that Obama wants to raise everyone's taxes, and by voting for them you'll have your tax cuts made permanent. The problem that's arising is that some in the GOP are totally okay with blowing another $3 trillion dollar hole in the economy over the next decade by not paying for them, while others in the GOP are now saying they must be paid for. Even on that front we're seeing the GOP fail to fall in line like they usually do.

The GOP is too fractured and split and fronted by way too many teabaggers right now to sweep back into power like they did in '94.

Prediction: If the GOP is seen as framing the debate better, which takes unity, they'll gain 25 House seats and 5-6 senate seats.

If the Dems frame things better, the leak stays plugged, and the economy is seen as doing a little bit better month-to-month these next 4 months, the Dems will make it a draw, which is effectively a victory for them. They need to get together and show us how well they did it just 2 years ago.

And yes, it does mean something that they're still raking in more in donations than the GOP. That might be telling us that this notion of a GOP wave across the country is ill-founded.

I'm better for predicting individual races, but I'll take a quick shot:

House: GOP gains 45 seats.
Senate: GOP gains 6 seats.
Governorships: Net GOP gain of 7.

If the Dems frame things better, the leak stays plugged, and the economy is seen as doing a little bit better month-to-month these next 4 months, the Dems will make it a draw, which is effectively a victory for them. They need to get together and show us how well they did it just 2 years ago.


here's why a draw is impossible. If the Democrats got the same vote ratios they did in 2006 and 2008, they'd still lose 20 seats in the House. Just too many red seats to defend.

As for the Senate, best case scenario is them losing 2-3 seats.

An outcome where the Democrats lost only 20 House seats and only 2 Senate seats would be a victory.

For the GOP to claim a real victory, they need to win a majority in the House, and gain at least 6 Senate seats.