Sufi Muhammad, the founder of Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (the guys fighting for Sharia in the Swat region), has persuaded his son-in-law Maulauna Fazlullah, who became the effective leader of the movement while his father-in-law was imprisoned, to accept the terms of the ceasefire with the government. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/25/wo...html?ref=world

Meanwhile, a ceasefire was apparently declared by the militants fighting in Bajaur Agency, east of Swat and inside the tribal areas. It seems unclear so far whether this cease-fire was ordered from the top by Baitullah Mehsud in some kind of deal, or if it was just the local elements seeking time to regroup after recent victories by the Pakistani military, or something else entirely.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=20525 It looks as if this could be more than a ceasefire in just the Bajaur Agency and perhaps more aimed at the entire Pakistani Taliban movement, or the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. If that is the case, then NATO is going to have to figure something out when the thousands of Pashtun militants turn their eyes away from the Pakistani military and into Afghanistan.

__________________
No man is an island...
Each man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in Mankind.
And therefore, never send to know
For whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.
—John Donne

That could very well be the case.

Yes the Taliban got caught by suprise and got their asses whooped in Afghanistan. But....The Taliban have been regrouping, reorganizing and recruiting in Pakistan for years.

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... ..................
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

Yeah, it's been a big problem not just for NATO but Pakistani forces too. A CFR report said that estimates of the TTP have the number of militants up around 30,000 to 35,000. Pakistan’s New Generation of Terrorists - Council on Foreign Relations Also, it's unclear how many of these combatants will continue their fight against NATO and how many will lay down their arms now that the Pakistani military seems to be ready to compromise.

Or, of course, the peace between the tribes and Taliban with the Pakistani military could shatter once again, as it has before.

__________________
No man is an island...
Each man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in Mankind.
And therefore, never send to know
For whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.
—John Donne

Musharraf negotiated a cease fire in another tribal region a while back and was widely (and unfairly IMO) criticized in the western press. The cease fire was on the condition that the Taliban turn in the foreign al-Qaeda fighters. And IIRC they did turn in some foreign fighters.

The Taliban isn't the real threat to NATO countries. Al-Qaeda is the real threat. And the thing is, the rank and file Taliban can't stand al-Qaeda because they are mostly foreigners. The rural population in Afghanistan and Pakistan generally hates foreigners. There have been several examples of the Pashtun turning in foreign fighters.

It seems to me that the best way to turn this situation around is to pry a wedge between the Taliban and al-Qaeda. They need to be convinced that it is not in their best interests to ally with al-Qaeda.

This is similar to the situation in Anbar. The Coalition was losing in Anbar until they convinced the tribal leaders and militias to turn their forces against al-Qaeda.

__________________
... ..................
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

Better still, we can try to split the tribal forces from the Taliban. Most of the tribes have their own rules, and they have no strong desire to follow Taliban rules (especially regarding opium). As it is, however, they're siding with the people they suspect will win this struggle in the long-haul.

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"The most important single central fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit."
- Milton Friedman

"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it."
- George Orwell

The Taliban imposed a temporary (1 or 2 season?) moritorium on poppy production in order to bolster prices back around 2000 or 2001.

They're not stupid. They understand the law of supply and demand. It think it's obvious that they did it to alleviate the glut in the market that was driving down opium prices. They were simply manipulating the market in the same way that OPEC manipulates the oil market. They had to cut supply in order to increase prices.

Another thing to consider is that in Afghanistan the Soviets used scorched earth tactics. They would destroy all of the orchards and vinyards after they "depopulated" a village. And since it takes several years before a fruit/nut tree or vinyard starts producing anything the farmers were forced to turn to annual crops like the opium poppy.

And now it's NATO that wants them to stop growing poppy while the Taliban is encourging it because they have control over the opium trade.

The Afgan farmers can't wait several years. They need to make a living now. Farmers can get two harvests per year if they plant poppies, but they get nothing for several years if they choose to exclusively plant mulberry or walnut trees or whatever. So that's not really a viable option for them. What would you do if you were in their predicament?

I think it is a big mistake to lose the focus of the original mission and turn it into just another insane front of the drug war. And it seems like that's what the European NATO members are hell-bent on doing. In fact I think it's the main reason they are there in the first place.

__________________
... ..................
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

a taate of things to come on a broader scale? The gov. says they will investigate it? How and why? They gave Swat to the Fundies so, well, what do you expect?


Video of Taliban flogging girl stirs anger in Pakistan

By Mubashir Zaidi and Laura King
April 4, 2009
Reporting from Istanbul, Turkey, and Islamabad, Pakistan -- Face down before a crowd, the teenage girl shrieks and writhes, begging for mercy. But the three masked men holding her down merely tighten their grip while a fourth man whips her again and again.

The video of a 17-year-old girl being publicly flogged by the Pakistani Taliban in the Swat Valley has galvanized the nation, drawing protests from human rights groups, denunciations from the central government and expressions of revulsion from many Pakistanis.

rest at-



Video of Taliban flogging girl stirs anger in Pakistan - Los Angeles Times

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"The captain has turned off the `No Dubbing' sign. You are free to speak any language you choose."

The peace agreement reached in Swat, aka the Malakand Accord, is on thin ice. The Long War Journal has gone so far as to say that it collapsed, but it seems that some are willing to keep trying. There will be a march to Islamabad in a couple days, and meanwhile the TNSM along with elements of the Taliban are still active in the region (and expanding into neighboring Buner).

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

Swat peace agreement collapses - The Long War Journal

DAWN.COM | + Pakistan | Sufi winds up Swat peace camp, wants law enforced

Good luck sorting this out Zardari.

__________________
No man is an island...
Each man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in Mankind.
And therefore, never send to know
For whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.
—John Donne

So, the European NATO members are hell bent on poppy eradication and that's why they're there in the first place. I've never heard such a misguided and blatantly incorrect summation in my life! If you don't know why we are in Afghanistan kindly don't spread ridiculous speculation as to why you think we are there.

Read the following and learn:

Here are the facts:

The poppy eradication programme has been tasked by the Afghan government and Afghan police, protected by Afghan soldiers have carried out the work.

Only recently has international NATO forces been used as guard troops, and then, as mentors to the Afghan army who provide the bulk of protection for the eradication programme. Oh, and they include US troops too.

Far from NATO european leaders being hell bent on eradication, it is they who have expressed concern that NATO involvement in eradicating drugs could prove counterproductive, legally questionable and helpful as a propaganda tool for the Taliban.

Oh, and who is the top NATO commander in Afghanistan? Oh dear. It's a US general.

So much for your view that NATO european members are only concerned with poppy eradication!

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Terrorism is a state policy in Pakistan. The terrorists are created by the state. From Kindergarten Madrasa to the weaponry training Madrasa centers are all under the nose of the government and military of Pakistan. No wonder the numbers of terrorist graduates that come out of these Madrasas are Anti-infidels in all aspect.

There is only one way to win these war. The U.S must defeat the Pakistani establishment. If that defeat comes, the terrorism will crumble. If that is not done, there is not way the U.S or anyother nation is going to win the war on terror. If there is no shift from the current policy of providing aid to Pakistan, which is going to it's military and then to the terrorists, it's better for the U.S to pack the bag and leave now rather than wait and get defeated. If you leave now or stay there it's not going to make any difference in reducing the chance of an attack on the United States. For the U.S to defeat terrorism, they must defeat the Pakistani establishment. That's the only way terrorism can be stopped in its track. The more time it takes the U.S, the more time the freaks have to get stronger and stronger.