Thread: North Korea attacks South Korea

Originally Posted by JDJarvis

I wasn't sure if there was any military capability or operational support capabilities there.

Me neither, though a treaty bans military operations other than research.

Originally Posted by ThorHammer

I don't know man. Their elites and those in the military/intelligence circles have to know the score. Throughout the past 15 years we have seen a marked decrease in military readiness and activity on their end; training slashed, rarely using live ammo. This coupled with the worsening food shortages would have to be very, very hard to ignore on their part. I think they know the writting is on the wall unless something drastic happens. Could a war be answer for them? If you are in danger of losing everything, you must be willing to risk everything to keep it. Ask youself: what do they have to lose? Do you think they would simply go quiet and meek, or go down swinging. If I were in their shoes it would be the latter.

North Korea could not afford to enter any confrontation without chinese backing. For the simple reason that all the Chinese would have to do is shut down the border crossings, cut off the regime from weapons and energy supplies and the "Dear Leader" would be on his knees within days. Chinese criticism of the north korean attack has been unusually harsh by asian standards and China is for certain not interested in a war on its doorstep with the US and Japan involved. Ergo I doubt the Kims are suicidal enough to go ahead alone. This one was much more likely supposed to get back on the world agenda and enter a new circle of blackmail and financial and humanitarian backing from the western World.

Originally Posted by Voland

North Korea could not afford to enter any confrontation without chinese backing. For the simple reason that all the Chinese would have to do is shut down the border crossings, cut off the regime from weapons and energy supplies and the "Dear Leader" would be on his knees within days. Chinese criticism of the north korean attack has been unusually harsh by asian standards and China is for certain not interested in a war on its doorstep with the US and Japan involved. Ergo I doubt the Kims are suicidal enough to go ahead alone. This one was much more likely supposed to get back on the world agenda and enter a new circle of blackmail and financial and humanitarian backing from the western World.

Maybe. However, as I said earlier, the ruling class in North Korea might be starting to think they have nothing to lose. Not saying war is inevitable but, as North Korea circles the drain, it is becoming more likely.

What is interesting about his latest provocation is that it comes around the time of year that would favor any potential North Korean invasion of the south.

Originally Posted by ThorHammer

Maybe. However, as I said earlier, the ruling class in North Korea might be starting to think they have nothing to lose. Not saying war is inevitable but, as North Korea circles the drain, it is becoming more likely.

What is interesting about his latest provocation is that it comes around the time of year that would favor any potential North Korean invasion of the south.

I'm still not convinced that North Korea is "circling the drain", though. They've been in much worse shape in the past (the 90's, for example) and now they have nuclear weapons. On top of that, China is still more than willing to keep North Korea supported, if only as a buffer against capitalist South Korea and to keep massive amounts of useless/non-skilled North Korean immigrants from spilling over the border. The North Korean government is just fine as it is, the country is no more closer to collapsing than it has been and if anything, they're a bit more powerful and secure today than they were a decade ago.

The one thing that may be 'circling the drain' is the North's ability to reunify the Korean peninsula under their own terms. As I understand it, the South Korean army continues to get more and more advanced as far as weaponry and reconnaissance, while the North is sort of stagnant. They're upgrading their weapons, too, but on top of long outdated soviet technology. While it'd be an immense uphill battle for North Korea to take South Korea at this point, it'd be flat out impossible to do so in 10-15 years time.

Basically, I think their fear of losing the ability to take South Korea is far more of a concern and far more realistic than the fear of their own country collapsing from the inside. They're getting to the point where if they want to take South Korea, they have to shit or get off the pot.

Originally Posted by Speakeasy

I'm still not convinced that North Korea is "circling the drain", though. They've been in much worse shape in the past (the 90's, for example) and now they have nuclear weapons. On top of that, China is still more than willing to keep North Korea supported, if only as a buffer against capitalist South Korea and to keep massive amounts of useless/non-skilled North Korean immigrants from spilling over the border. The North Korean government is just fine as it is, the country is no more closer to collapsing than it has been and if anything, they're a bit more powerful and secure today than they were a decade ago.

The one thing that may be 'circling the drain' is the North's ability to reunify the Korean peninsula under their own terms. As I understand it, the South Korean army continues to get more and more advanced as far as weaponry and reconnaissance, while the North is sort of stagnant. They're upgrading their weapons, too, but on top of long outdated soviet technology. While it'd be an immense uphill battle for North Korea to take South Korea at this point, it'd be flat out impossible to do so in 10-15 years time.

Basically, I think their fear of losing the ability to take South Korea is far more of a concern and far more realistic than the fear of their own country collapsing from the inside. They're getting to the point where if they want to take South Korea, they have to shit or get off the pot.

I doubt that North Koreas leaders are interested in anything else than the survival of their regime. And I also doubt they have lost touch with reality to the extent of believing their own propaganda to reeunite the peninsula.
According to all sources available the North Korean military may be larger by numbers, but its soldiers are considered malnourished, badly trained and equipped. Additionally most of NK 's weapons arsenal seems to date from the 60's to 80's and is not seriously a match for the south korean and US forces. Furthermore the desire of his soldiers to die for the Dear Leader might not be 100 % on all accounts. And if that is not enough their chinese "friends" might be warning them these days to not even think about it. Since chinese "friendship" may not go far enough to tolerate the Kims running Amok on their doorstep and possibly drawing Bejing into it.

Originally Posted by Voland

I doubt that North Koreas leaders are interested in anything else than the survival of their regime. And I also doubt they have lost touch with reality to the extent of believing their own propaganda to reeunite the peninsula.
According to all sources available the North Korean military may be larger by numbers, but its soldiers are considered malnourished, badly trained and equipped. Additionally most of NK 's weapons arsenal seems to date from the 60's to 80's and is not seriously a match for the south korean and US forces. Furthermore the desire of his soldiers to die for the Dear Leader might not be 100 % on all accounts. And if that is not enough their chinese "friends" might be warning them these days to not even think about it. Since chinese "friendship" may not go far enough to tolerate the Kims running Amok on their doorstep and possibly drawing Bejing into it.

But, if they were interested only in the survival of their regime, why pull a stunt like this? All it does is increase the threat of their regime being destroyed, either through war or through China tightening the flow of money and supplies. North Korea already has what it needs to maintain its status quo: a weak and non-threatening populace and enough of an income to maintain a lavish lifestyle for the elite and support its military. The only reason I can think of for them to risk breaking that status quo is that they want more, namely, the rest of the Korean peninsula.

And yea, North Korea winning any sort of large scale conflict is an extreme long shot, especially since they can only maintain such a conflict for a few months at most. The problem, though, is that if the war were to resume, I highly doubt South Korea, Japan and the US would be happy just pushing North Korea back to the 38th. I would bet just about anything that they'd bring the war back to Pyongyang to destroy North Korea once and for all. And if that were to happen, expect a repeat of what happened before: China beginning to help the North. Then all hell would break loose and a decisive victory of the North becomes a little bit more questionable.

But, like I said earlier, while all this is fun to debate and discuss, we're all just taking shots in the dark. With such a secretive country, it's near impossible to tell what the actual motivations are for what the North does since we can only speculate what's going on behind the iron curtain. In addition, we're applying logical thought to a rather illogical country.

Nuke 'em from orbit.


It's the only way to be sure.

How long will we have troops there?

Bring them home.

Originally Posted by Speakeasy

I'm still not convinced that North Korea is "circling the drain", though. They've been in much worse shape in the past (the 90's, for example) and now they have nuclear weapons. On top of that, China is still more than willing to keep North Korea supported, if only as a buffer against capitalist South Korea and to keep massive amounts of useless/non-skilled North Korean immigrants from spilling over the border. The North Korean government is just fine as it is, the country is no more closer to collapsing than it has been and if anything, they're a bit more powerful and secure today than they were a decade ago.

The one thing that may be 'circling the drain' is the North's ability to reunify the Korean peninsula under their own terms. As I understand it, the South Korean army continues to get more and more advanced as far as weaponry and reconnaissance, while the North is sort of stagnant. They're upgrading their weapons, too, but on top of long outdated soviet technology. While it'd be an immense uphill battle for North Korea to take South Korea at this point, it'd be flat out impossible to do so in 10-15 years time.

Basically, I think their fear of losing the ability to take South Korea is far more of a concern and far more realistic than the fear of their own country collapsing from the inside. They're getting to the point where if they want to take South Korea, they have to shit or get off the pot.

I don't know man. The development of nukes, the sinking of a South Korean warship, and now this? To me these moves reek of desperation. Something is in the air in North Korea. Something we might not as yet be totally aware of. I think it is going to become increasingly tough for the elite to even remain in power.

Their ability to reunify the peninsula on their own terms has been dead since the 1970s. We know it, they know it, everyone knows it. This, I think, is something different.

Originally Posted by Speakeasy

North Korea still has a huge interest in existing, not sure why you think they're going into suicide mode. They might be getting a little bit desperate, but in no way are they going to want to 'go out in a blaze of glory'. The idea is a bit ridiculous to begin with, but even more so when applied to a country that has convinced itself that it's invincible on the battlefield.

Their goal isn't to go out in a blaze of glory, its to reunite the Korean peninsula under one giant communist government....

I don't know....

Megalomaniacal dictators in decline are not usually noted for their rationality, common sense, perspective or sanity. And this whole group are not long for this terrestrial sphere.

So 'suicide mode' may well go with the territory. And as they go, so goes the country.

Originally Posted by ThorHammer

I don't know man. The development of nukes, the sinking of a South Korean warship, and now this? To me these moves reek of desperation. Something is in the air in North Korea. Something we might not as yet be totally aware of. I think it is going to become increasingly tough for the elite to even remain in power.

Their ability to reunify the peninsula on their own terms has been dead since the 1970s. We know it, they know it, everyone knows it. This, I think, is something different.

If North Korea was really desperate, why would they be pussy footing around like this and not just go to war? Granted, that very same question is equally valid on my point, as well. And yea, the desperation would have to stem from something that we're not fully aware of. Kim Jong-Il is dying, but his father died and they successfully transferred power then, so I don't see any reason to believe there'd be any more desperation now.

Also, this isn't totally out of line with how North Korea normally acts. Heck, a few decades ago they blew up a South Korean airliner. They've hacked up American soldiers with an ax on the DMZ. Those are pretty rough, too. And that was when they still had support from various communist regimes since the cold war was still cold. That was before 10% of their population died of starvation. That was before they really had any reason to act desperate.

The major problem here is we have no idea what NKs goal is. We have zero intelligence on them. Except that we know they arent rational.

Originally Posted by Tim

I don't know....

Megalomaniacal dictators in decline are not usually noted for their rationality, common sense, perspective or sanity. And this whole group are not long for this terrestrial sphere.

So 'suicide mode' may well go with the territory. And as they go, so goes the country.

Once again, I haven't been shown how they're 'in decline' or 'circling the drain'. Sure, they're not exactly the most well off country in the world, but North Korea has lived through much darker days. The only 'proof' I've seen that they're in some kind of decline is that "they're acting like it". But I'm looking for a bit more evidence than that. Though, admittedly, I'm probably asking in vain, since North Korea only really tells us what it wants to tell us and the rest is for us to figure out from the scant information that leaks out.