Thread: Presidents Polls (merged)

Its not surprising his numbers are dropping since most of what he has accomplished so far is to re-inforce bush policies of deficit spending, corporate bailouts, protection of torturers, indemnifying illegal spying on americans, holding people indefinitely without charge. He is ramping down the war in Iraq, but he's simultaneously ramping it up in afghanistan. People voted for CHANGE not more-of-the-same.

as far as polls go, I try and remain consistent as I am suspect of ALL polls, so I look at the realclear politics average of several polling agencies and entities etc. I think it’s the only fair way to get anywhere near an accurate snapshot.

it aint looking good-

Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread
RCP Average 6/18 - 7/7 -- 57.8 36.8 +21.0

Gallup 7/5 - 7/7 1547 A 56 36 +20

Rasmussen Reports 7/2 - 7/7 1500 LV 52 48 +4

Quinnipiac 6/23 - 6/29 3063 RV 57 33 +24

CNN/Opinion Research 6/26 - 6/28 1026 A 61 37 +24

Democracy Corps (D) 6/19 - 6/22 1000 RV 56 36 +20

ABC News/Wash Post 6/18 - 6/21 1001 A 65 31 +34



RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

Originally Posted by Disillusioned_1

Its not surprising his numbers are dropping since most of what he has accomplished so far is to re-inforce bush policies of deficit spending, corporate bailouts, protection of torturers, indemnifying illegal spying on americans, holding people indefinitely without charge. He is ramping down the war in Iraq, but he's simultaneously ramping it up in afghanistan. People voted for CHANGE not more-of-the-same.

Exactly.

There is a high correlation between presidential approval and whether the economy is growing or shrinking (with a 5 month lag).
Peoples perceptions apparently lag the numbers by about 5 months.
The real concern for the Obama re-election team is what the economy is doing in the second quarter of 2012.
For the Democrats in Congress, they need the economy to bottom sometime in the next 9 months and to show some pep in the second quarter of 2010. I don't see a lot of change in congress, incumbents still have a major advantage which should keep the Democrats in the majority in the House, and the Senate races are balanced next year with 18 Democratic held seats and 18 Republican held seats up for election, so I don't see a change of more than 1 or 2 seats in the Senate.
There is a lot of Stimulus in the pipeline between now and next year, so by next spring we should have the worst behind us and the economy should be showing some growth.

And of course, the long term demographic trends should have tilted the playing field a little more to the left, so I'm not worried about a GOP resurgence.

humm, me thinks I will bookmark this thread, see you in nov. 2010 goober.

And of course, in true Goober fashion your concern is the economy showing some spunk in time for nov. 2012 so the messiah can stay off the cross. Nice, that’s 3 years and 3 months from now, great.

Originally Posted by Imperator

humm, me thinks I will bookmark this thread, see you in nov. 2010 goober.

And of course, in true Goober fashion your concern is the economy showing some spunk in time for nov. 2012 so the messiah can stay off the cross. Nice, that’s 3 years and 3 months from now, great.

You do that

This doesn't surprise me. Obama has done an FDR, in that he used a lot of left-wing rhetoric to get elected, and then has moved to the right to govern. He's being held to his promises and his rhetoric; this is good. The next question is how long it will take him to get the picture. I'm guessing not very long, as he's pretty sharp.

Expect a move to the left in policy from Obama over the next six months.

I fail to see what the righties are all up in arms about. Obama seems intent on following the policies of Bush. He's certainly betrayed his campaign promises at this point (shareholder bailouts for failed financials, instead of doing the sensible thing and just forcing them into recievership (temporary nationalization), indefinate detentions (screw habius corpus), a cap and trade system that has been described by liberal and common sense representatives like Defazio as being a financial market handout - rather then a rational global warming policy, health care plans that also look like industry hand outs rather then a common sense single payer system, etc., etc. Everything Obama has done is either a continuation of Bush policy (withdrawing from Iraqi cities, as per pre made Bush plans), or something that looks more fitting coming from a moderate republican. What has this guy done that's even a clear liberal policy? Nothing, the man is a farce.

Originally Posted by phungus

I fail to see what the righties are all up in arms about. Obama seems intent on following the policies of Bush. He's certainly betrayed his campaign promises at this point (shareholder bailouts for failed financials, instead of doing the sensible thing and just forcing them into recievership (temporary nationalization), indefinate detentions (screw habius corpus), a cap and trade system that has been described by liberal and common sense representatives like Defazio as being a financial market handout - rather then a rational global warming policy, health care plans that also look like industry hand outs rather then a common sense single payer system, etc., etc. Everything Obama has done is either a continuation of Bush policy (withdrawing from Iraqi cities, as per pre made Bush plans), or something that looks more fitting coming from a moderate republican. What has this guy done that's even a clear liberal policy? Nothing, the man is a farce.

Wow, how far to the left would one have to be, to actually make a statement like that? Fascinating.

I am actually glad for your discontent though, gives me hope.

They may not like Obama as much as they once did but the reason they're beginning to dislike him is because he's looking more and more Republican. To somehow conclude from this that these are glad tidings for the GOP is the height of folly, but then you guys have had this problem with reality for the last few years, haven't you.

Whatever else you might want to say about Obama he is a very, very skilled politician, I think what he's been doing with all this Bush imitation is testing the waters and this trending shows that they are not flowing the Republican way. I think very soon you will see O begin to do what he was elected for, kicking Republican butt and taking Republican names.

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Looks like a statistical outliner

Originally Posted by countryboy

Wow, how far to the left would one have to be, to actually make a statement like that? Fascinating.

I am actually glad for your discontent though, gives me hope.

It shouldn't. Let me clarify what we mean by "left." We mean, being willing to screw the big corporations. The entire problem with Obama's actions to date is that he has compromised everything for the sake of protecting corporate profits. We simply can't have a good national health care plan, for instance, without cutting the hell out of the profits of the pharmaceutical companies and the medical insurance industry. We can't do anything about global warming without sending the fossil fuel industry down the tube. And of course the corporate bailouts speak for themselves.

Why was Obama elected in the first place? Because people have become seriously fed up with government of, by, and for the corporate interests. But that appears to be what we still have. He will need to move sharply to the left IN THIS SENSE -- become willing to sacrifice corporate profits -- or there will be no perceived need to reelect him. The differences between him and the Republicans will be seen as nonexistent.

Originally Posted by TSGracchus

This doesn't surprise me. Obama has done an FDR, in that he used a lot of left-wing rhetoric to get elected, and then has moved to the right to govern. He's being held to his promises and his rhetoric; this is good. The next question is how long it will take him to get the picture. I'm guessing not very long, as he's pretty sharp.

Expect a move to the left in policy from Obama over the next six months.

I was thinking the same thing re: FDR.

The reasons the polls are dipping is not because of the Right. Obama will always have the fanatical 20%ers that dislike him no matter what he does. It's those on the left who are starting to see a pattern of the continuation of Bush policies (some would even say he's going further) that are expressing their disappointment via these polls, hence the dip.