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Ww iii

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  • Ww iii

    On the 23 of November Russian President Dmitry Medvedev addressed Russian citizens in connection with the situation that has evolved around a U.S. missile defense and NATO presence in Europe along Russia's borders.

    Russia-US missile defense negotiations have reached an impasse, as the US has refused to give legally binding guarantees that the system would not be aimed at Russia’s strategic nuclear defenses under any circumstances.

    In his address to the nation Medvedev outlined imediate and long-term military steps Russia will take to counteract US missile shield in Europe. And also said that if the situation will not be resolved, Russia reserves the right to refuse further steps in disarmament and arms control.

    In addition, given the inextricable link between strategic offensive and defensive weapons, Russia may exit the START Treaty.

    http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct...eJs0St5C0176Jg

    I don't know what put a wind up his sails, maybe his and Putin's desastorous rating... Whether or not Kremlin gnomes decided to uphold Russia's interests and security will be seen from their actions towards Syria and Iran: if they will sell those countries to "international community" it would mean Medvedev's "address to the nation" was a PR stunt for home consumption; if not, it would mean the world situation is deteriorating more rapidly, then one was hoping for...

  • #2
    Re: Ww iii

    This is what I think about the current situation and its development:

    A sudden and dramatic exacerbation of the rhetoric of Russian and American leadership, their solidarity in a sudden mayhem they have created with European security leads to a very disturbing thought. What if there will be a war tomorrow?

    The war is, in fact, already in progress if anyone noticed. “Arab Spring” - it's just the beginning of the World War 3, its first act; more precisely -- its prologue. However, the World War 3 will be fundamentally different from the previous ones...
    To understand the differences, it is necessary to understand the framework of the reasons that cause such a massive phenomenon, as a World War.

    We will not take into account any other reasons except the economic ones - though, of course, this greatly simplifies the model and making it very inaccurate. But none the less... The modern economy is a credit economy in its essence - and that's why it always goes through cycles of very strong crisis of overproduction. The boom in industrial production stimulated by the infusion of credit always ends with the crisis of overproduction and debt collapse. This is the alpha and omega of modern capitalism based on the lending rate. No other mechanism exists: boom - and collapse.

    A war is a way to restart the economy. Similar to a "reset" button on your computer. The meaning of the war is to disintegrate the industrial output. Weapons, equipment, buildings, infrastructure and so on.

    Debt - this is not the cause of this crisis, it is a corollary. And the debts have no importance in reality. Say, a terrible figure of $ 15 trillion U.S. national debt at a cursory look reveals that it is in actual fact a trifle. What is the national debt? Its money that the state takes as loan to finance the budget deficit. 40% of U.S. debt is to its own social foundations, that is to itself. And the payments on this debt will have to start in 20-25 years.

    Only a third of U.S. government debt - it's foreign debt. A 5 trillion, compared to 15 - is quite another matter. FR can pay off all external creditors tomorrow without batting an eyelid... That is why the U.S. credit rating is high as are U.S. government securities - highly liquid and safe. So the debt is not the cause of future wars.

    But the crisis caused by the comatose industry - is serious. The problem is stated simply and clearly - it's time to restart the world economy. And this must be done by disposing of and disintegrating as fully as possible everything that was produced earlier.

    Today's militarization of civilization is much higher than it was in the thirties and forties. And all of this iron, titanium, chips and gigatons are standing. One billion rounds of ammunition, which can be burned in the microlocal conflict in Libya is sheer nonsense, its seeds. The task is much more global: there is the need to utilize all of these weapons and technology, tens of thousands of cruise missiles, thousands of tanks stuffed with electronics, ultra-modern aircrafts - all these trillions of dollars lying in dormant in already produced weapons.

    At the same time there is the need to turn to gravel trillions of dollars buried in highways, metropolitan areas, expensive restaurants, boutiques and other no longer needed infrastructure. It is necessary to clear the building site for a major new construction. That is the meaning of a World War.

    Actually, all the three world wars (I think it makes sense to take for granted the fact that the third one has already begun) began in this way and for this reason. So in that sense, the analogy is quite appropriate. But then the differences begin. And they are very serious differences.
    A major factor of uncertainty which makes it impossible to just run so well tested mechanism of recycling of industrial production are the nuclear weapons. More specifically - nuclear weapons that are in different hands.

    The scenario of the Third World War in essence is already in front of us: the main villain is the Islamic world. Demolishing secular regimes and establishing in their place the Islamists the West seeks to direct 300million-strong Muslim population in the jihad against Europe - as it is in Europe the basic infrastructure to be recycled is concentrated. Russia in this scenario falls under the roller precisely because - as always – it will have to pay the tax to Western civilization with blood. A cannon fodder. And this is what Grandpa Brzezinski had in mind telling tales of the accession of Russia and Turkey to Western civilization. Nothing new, really.

    The freedom-loving peoples of the Euro-Atlantic will, of course, roll into the dust the “evil fanatics” after paying for it with the “Holocaust 2” in Israel, burning cities in Europe, sacrifising millions of Russian lives. Nothing personal - ONLY business. To disintegrate the three hundred millions of “fanatics” and “carriers of universal evil”, you will need to spend all the accumulated weapons and make mountains of the new ones in the course of punitive measures. After that comes the period of restoration from the ruins. This means not trillions, but tens and hundreds of trillions of dollars (or whatever currency may appear instead of the dollar); a few decades of fall into barbarism for almost half of the survivors under the wise and sensitive management of Unknown Fathers from the other side of the ocean. And - out to the new heights of prosperity! Then - a few decades of industrial incredible leap - and again, a new disaster. The new crisis of overproduction.

    Actually - this is WWIII scenario in the framework presentation. But there is one and a substantial “but”. The nuclear weapons. Indeterminate factor.

    The problem of nuclear weapons - in its extreme unselectiveness and fantastic entropic strength. Tactical nuclear weapons can not cause any negative emotion in this sense - after all, the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in laboratory experiment have shown that the effects of “gentle” and “humane” use of small charges do not bring fatal damage. But current strategists have not yet experimented with a strategic weapon and its massive use. And a number of scenarios based on a possible scenario of mass nuclear holocaust are not joyful. A "nuclear winter" in its apocalyptic version would hardly be the inevitable consequence of a nuclear war, but the meaning of restarting the economy under such circumstances would still be lost. The task of the writers of the Third World War is to keep the global market. Nuclear war will significantly reduce its size - thus there is a risk that a new cycle of rise in industrial production will be very short.

    Way out of this uncertain situation is simple - the elimination of strategic nuclear weapons that are currently in the "wrong hands".

    Strictly speaking, Russia and its ownership of strategic nuclear weapons is one reason why the third world war still can not reach the required performance indicators. The task of the U.S. is to deprive Russia of any of the strategic nuclear weapons, or its application.

    The first scenario - depriving us of these weapons - unfolds in two directions. One direction - the current comprador government is destroying the country's industrial potential making it impossible to maintain strategic nuclear forces in readiness. In fact, in just a few years all Soviet strategic missiles will be retired for old age, and it will be impossible to create an adequate number of the new ones. ....
    The second direction - the rise to power even more comprador elites than the current one; the elites that will be only too happy to give under external control these dangerous toys.

    The second scenario - deprivation of use of strategic nuclear weapons by surrounding Russia with US missile defense. Coupled with the dying nuclear strategic forces the dense shield would make it impossible for Russia to use its strategic nuclear weapons.

    And then - and only then - Russia will be given an ultimatum. And the essence of this ultimatum is quite simple. “Guys - Unknown Fathers will say to our rulers, -- Want to keep your money earnestly stolen from the Russian people? Pay us some “taxes” and sleep well. The tax would be the blood of the Russian population.” What do you think, will our elite pay such a tax? Yes, there is no question about it.

    מה מכילות החדשות?


    • #3
      Re: Ww iii

      Uh....aren't all these weapons and infrastructure that has to be destroyed mainly in the US? How are you going to destroy most of America without using atom bombs?

      מה מכילות החדשות?


      • #4
        Re: Ww iii

        OTOH just wait and there may be no need for war, the present Republicans seem so set upon budget cutting and military spending that they're allowing our present infrastructure to fall about our ears as we speak.

        Perhaps there IS wisdom in conservatism, though somehow letting us descend into a new Dark Age so we may recover stronger some centuries hence seems a course unlikely to garner many votes. Oh, but I forget, it's a matter of PRINCIPLES.

        מה מכילות החדשות?


        • #5
          Re: Ww iii

          Winston Churchill would call it WWIV.

          To him, the First World War was fought between Britain and France between 1756 and 1763. We call it the Seven Years' War. This war was truly global, being fought in Europe, Africa, India, North America, South America and the Philippine Islands and saw the then two greatest powers fighting each other for territory.

          The war was something of a defeat for France (of course) and it saw then give up vast swathes of territory to the British, particularly in North America and India. A succession of French military defeats at the hands of the British, coupled with the French handing over vast swathes of their territory to the British, also saw Britain becoming the undisputed military, economic, industrial and imperial power in the world. The year Britain's global dominance was confirmed was 1759, which is known by the British to this day as Annus Mirabilis.

          Annus Mirabilis of 1759 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

          Therefore, if you follow Churchill's belief, the war of 1914 to 1918 was the Second World War and the war of 1939 to 1945 was the Third World War.

          מה מכילות החדשות?


          • #6
            Re: Ww iii

            mmm....and the Napoleonic Wars weren't world wide enough...OK, I can see that.

            'course if we include Napoleonic and Cold it becomes WW VI

            Then again maybe war, like history, is a seamless web and all the names are as artificial as the Middle Ages or the Renaissance....we've just been fighting constantly for over 200 years, with lulls and opponent changes.

            מה מכילות החדשות?


            • #7
              Re: Ww iii

              Originally posted by Sir Drinkalot View Post
              Winston Churchill would call it WWIV.

              To him, the First World War was fought between Britain and France between 1756 and 1763. We call it the Seven Years' War. This war was truly global, being fought in Europe, Africa, India, North America, South America and the Philippine Islands and saw the then two greatest powers fighting each other for territory.

              The war was something of a defeat for France (of course) and it saw then give up vast swathes of territory to the British, particularly in North America and India. A succession of French military defeats at the hands of the British, coupled with the French handing over vast swathes of their territory to the British, also saw Britain becoming the undisputed military, economic, industrial and imperial power in the world. The year Britain's global dominance was confirmed was 1759, which is known by the British to this day as Annus Mirabilis.

              Annus Mirabilis of 1759 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

              Therefore, if you follow Churchill's belief, the war of 1914 to 1918 was the Second World War and the war of 1939 to 1945 was the Third World War.

              Yes, that seems logical with regards to his analyzation.

              מה מכילות החדשות?


              • #8
                Re: Ww iii

                I'll tell you what.

                If it puts an end to this "reality TV" bullshit I'd welcome a WW(whaeverthefucknumber).

                מה מכילות החדשות?


                • #9
                  Re: Ww iii

                  Originally posted by soot View Post
                  I'll tell you what.

                  If it puts an end to this "reality TV" bullshit I'd welcome a WW(whaeverthefucknumber).
                  How in HELL did that come up?

                  Though I actually agree with it, I still can see NO relationship...in fact, I wonder why we haven't seen "reality" shows based on our present wars...."When Mommy Comes Marching Home Again", about a husband whose wife has been deployed to Afghanistan or "Squadron Halt" about an eight or more child active duty MILITARY family.

                  *puffs on big Cuban and leans back in Bodybilt "Have a treatment on my desk by 9:30 am, in time for my latte, now get out of my office"
                  Last edited by John Drake; 11-28-2011, 01:41 PM.

                  מה מכילות החדשות?


                  • #10
                    Re: Ww iii

                    In regards to the Nuclear war scenario the only nations that are a threat to the U.S. are China and Russia its a simple matter of can you wipe out our entire nation with nukes before we shove a few dozen nukes down your throat and turn you as well as areas of your neighbors into a nuclear wasteland. and for most countries the answer is NO they can not, because we are one of the largest nations on earth geographically as well as in terms of population. not to mention our military bases all over the world that would instantly refocus on turning whatever nation just attacked us into a crater.

                    I do Recognize the threat of a nuke going of in space, it is merely an EMP threat for anyone on the ground and i am not certain it is a very large one. now to preempt the inevitable idiot mentioning fallout im going to say this the fallout composed of radioactive particles would not reach the earth due to the atmosphere being an area of higher pressure than space which would suck the radioactive particles out to space and likely screw over our space program for a few years.

                    מה מכילות החדשות?


                    • #11
                      Re: Ww iii

                      Originally posted by USMCbound View Post
                      I do Recognize the threat of a nuke going of in space, it is merely an EMP threat for anyone on the ground and i am not certain it is a very large one. now to preempt the inevitable idiot mentioning fallout im going to say this the fallout composed of radioactive particles would not reach the earth due to the atmosphere being an area of higher pressure than space which would suck the radioactive particles out to space and likely screw over our space program for a few years.
                      A nuclear airburst type attack that was designed and intended for it's EMP effects would literally cripple the United States.

                      Whoever did it would effectively "win" the war.

                      Think of everything we use electricity for.

                      Then throw ALL of that stuff out: your computer, your phone, your lights, your microwave, the pumps thhat bring water and natural gas to your home, your car, the trains/planes/trucks that bring food to the store, the vehicles used to harvest food, medical equipment, the factories that produce everything we have (including medicine).

                      In the time it takes to snap your finger we would be transported back to the 19th century with none of the mechanics, tools, policies, or knowledge necessary to live a 19th century lifestyle.

                      Depending upon what time of year it happened and how willing and/or able our "allies" were to come to our rescue we could probably expect 30% to 50% of the population to die of causes completly unrelated to blast effects, fallout, or anything else generally associated with nuclear detonation inside of six months.

                      For all intents and purposes America would no longer exist.

                      You know what our national policy is in the event of an EMP attack?

                      We ignore the possibility.

                      Sure, we'd retaliate with submarine based ballistic missiles (assuming we knew who did it and could communicate orders to the subs) but we haven't hardened any of our critical infrastructure and we don't have an "emergency plan".

                      In a word, we'd be fucked.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Ww iii

                        That is more like "Chicken Little" crap than anything else. Yes our infrastructure isn't as hard as it could be and it would cause problems but to say that "" America would no longer exist"" is non-sense. Not all electronics would be affected and many of the systems you seem so worried about are triplely redundant. Couple that with the sheer aomout of underground fiber, EMP damage would be quickly fixed for critical areas. Additionally, you would need more than just a few bursts to affect a large enough area to be effective on the majority of the US.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Ww iii

                          Originally posted by Lost Time View Post
                          That is more like "Chicken Little" crap than anything else. Yes our infrastructure isn't as hard as it could be and it would cause problems but to say that "" America would no longer exist"" is non-sense. Not all electronics would be affected and many of the systems you seem so worried about are triplely redundant. Couple that with the sheer aomout of underground fiber, EMP damage would be quickly fixed for critical areas. Additionally, you would need more than just a few bursts to affect a large enough area to be effective on the majority of the US.
                          Our infrastructure isn't hard at all. Our infrastructure is like a freaking jellyfish.

                          Three or four strategically placed detonations would cripple America.

                          Who gives a darn about "underground" fiber?

                          In tests EMPs have fried electrical components 1000 km underground.

                          Besides, all of the transformers are above ground, many up in the air on telephone poles or down the street at your local electrical substation, none of them are shielded, and they'd all go. Triple redundancy is great when one or two components of the triple redundant system are effected. When you lose them all no amount of redundancy is going to benefit you.

                          And when the slow component of an EMP event interacts with the normal operation of a power grid systems the transformers don't blow a fuse, they burn. And when they burn they can't be repaired - they have to be replaced. We probably have a couple 100 transformers in my town alone. You think we have millions of them stockpiled away somewhere that we can just trot out if they all happen to fry at once? And how would we move them out to the locations where their needed when all the PSE&G trucks are sitting dead in a parkinglot?

                          A single 500 kt burst 250 miles above western Pennsylvania would permenantly knock out power to 40% of the American polulation, destroy every car, train, and airplane from Clevland to Chicago to Boston to NYC to NOVA, and permenantly halt production of 50% of the pharmeceuticals manufactured in the U.S. (as just a small exemplary smattering of the consequences).

                          You explain to me how you're going to address a cathastrophe like that "quickly".

                          It doesn't just throw the breakers dude. Breakers account for line resistance. EMP travels at the speed of light. The surge will be past the breaker panel before the system even knows what hit it.

                          Ignorance, like yours, is the reason our infrastructure is like, as I say above, a freaking jellyfish.

                          Now if you want to argue the likelyhood of multiple mass nuclear detonations over the United States we can then transition to whether or not this is a "chicken little" type warning.

                          We'd probably agree that something like this occuring is especially unlikely, even the single detonation over PA that I mention above.

                          But if it ever does happen we're fucked. Completly fucked.
                          Last edited by soot; 12-01-2011, 10:08 AM.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Ww iii

                            Let me put this out there, war between nations (big nations) is pretty much impossible, because there is nothing to gain.
                            Look at the recent debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, complete fucking embarrassments, and an object lesson that war isn't the profit center it used to be.
                            Back in the old days we could send in the marines to take out a budding democracy, machine gun a few thousand peasants, and install a compliant dictator for short money.
                            Today, no such luck.


                            But war waged by a non-national group, especially war waged by a group based in cyber space, sidesteps the billions wasted in conventional defenses, and provides "Yesterday's military" with no suitable targets.

                            The infrastructure is vulnerable to EMP, sure. But it's also vulnerable to sabotage by low tech means, and if an EMP attack is launched, the nation that launched it would be targeted by our nuclear weapons, which are one of the few things that wouldn't be disrupted by an EMP attack.

                            As nation-states become irrelevant, wars between nations will cease to exist.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Ww iii

                              Originally posted by soot View Post
                              In tests EMPs have fried electrical components 1000 km underground.
                              Tone down the hyperbole. You would come across more believable

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