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Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

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  • Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

    I was thinking about this last night. I see no possible peaceful resolution to the unrest in Syria. Violence is the only possible outcome and the US, with the International Community, has insured that it is so. Here is my reasoning. They have all said that "Assad must go". What does that mean? He has to go somewhere, right? But he can't just "go" go. He would have to be "held accountable for his actions". Basically, there are only three outcome possible:

    1. The "revolution" beats the government forces and he ends up getting caught by a mob and sodomized and then killed on the spot (Qaddafi).
    2. The "revolution" wins or Western forces intervene and we capture him alive. He will then be put on trial and then hung (Saddam).
    3. Assad wins out over the "revolution" and remains in power using any means he can get away with.

    So, as you can see, the only option for Assad is to kill the shit outta people until they stop. There is no alternative. So what do we do about it? I think it's none of our business and if it was really about human rights crimes we would have went into multiple African countries a long time ago. This whole thing smell like shit and will only end in massive amounts of bloodshed. This has been assured by the Western world.

    Anyone see where there is a different option available? Is there a possible peaceful solution?

  • #2
    Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

    Originally posted by fishjoel View Post
    Is there a possible peaceful solution?
    Is ANY definitive dictatorship going to be considered by anyone a "peaceful solution"?

    מה מכילות החדשות?


    • #3
      Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

      Originally posted by USCitizen View Post
      Is ANY definitive dictatorship going to be considered by anyone a "peaceful solution"?
      I don't know. All I know is that everyone is calling for Assad to stop the violence. That's simply not a plausible option for him. The only way there could be a peaceful solution is if he was given a free pass to a country that would accept him with the promise that he would not be pursued as long as he never left that country. I believe that would be the best solution if people actually wanted a peaceful solution. It would involve a lot of people swallowing their pride and revenge. I don't see that as ever being on the table so the only solution will be extreme violence. This is especially true if his chemical weapons capabilities have any bite to them like has been indicated.

      מה מכילות החדשות?


      • #4
        Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

        I think that Russia and China serve as pretty decent insurance that nobody else is going to go into the country to get Assad. That means an extended proxy war between Israel and Iran. I also suspect that the public statement regarding chemical weapons means that they will be used. I would guess that the story will be that rebel forces "liberated" the weapons and either had an accident or, more likely, used them against an isolated unit of the State.

        If that happens then Russia and China will step up their support creating a further deterrent against outside intervention. Israel will back off because the US will withhold support and eventually Assad will win and we'll all be back at square one.

        מה מכילות החדשות?


        • #5
          Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

          Originally posted by lutherf View Post
          I think that Russia and China serve as pretty decent insurance that nobody else is going to go into the country to get Assad. That means an extended proxy war between Israel and Iran. I also suspect that the public statement regarding chemical weapons means that they will be used. I would guess that the story will be that rebel forces "liberated" the weapons and either had an accident or, more likely, used them against an isolated unit of the State.

          If that happens then Russia and China will step up their support creating a further deterrent against outside intervention. Israel will back off because the US will withhold support and eventually Assad will win and we'll all be back at square one.
          Square one being a stable Syria being run by a regime that is not better or worse than the Muslim Brotherhood?

          מה מכילות החדשות?


          • #6
            Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

            Originally posted by fishjoel View Post
            Square one being a stable Syria being run by a regime that is not better or worse than the Muslim Brotherhood?
            Well, a stable regime that isn't opposed to offing pretty much anyone that opposes them.

            מה מכילות החדשות?


            • #7
              Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

              Originally posted by lutherf View Post
              Well, a stable regime that isn't opposed to offing pretty much anyone that opposes them.
              That sounds like any country. What do you suppose the reaction would be from the US gov if there was an armed rebellion? Hell, people got antsy enough with just the OWS protests.

              מה מכילות החדשות?


              • #8
                Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

                Originally posted by fishjoel View Post
                Anyone see where there is a different option available? Is there a possible peaceful solution?
                No, and there never was a possible peaceful solution.

                - - - Updated - - -

                Originally posted by fishjoel View Post
                That sounds like any country. What do you suppose the reaction would be from the US gov if there was an armed rebellion? Hell, people got antsy enough with just the OWS protests.
                I doubt the reaction would be quite the same. There is something to be said for underlying cultures.

                מה מכילות החדשות?


                • #9
                  Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

                  Originally posted by fishjoel View Post
                  I was thinking about this last night. I see no possible peaceful resolution to the unrest in Syria. Violence is the only possible outcome and the US, with the International Community, has insured that it is so. Here is my reasoning. They have all said that "Assad must go". What does that mean? He has to go somewhere, right? But he can't just "go" go. He would have to be "held accountable for his actions". Basically, there are only three outcome possible:

                  1. The "revolution" beats the government forces and he ends up getting caught by a mob and sodomized and then killed on the spot (Qaddafi).
                  2. The "revolution" wins or Western forces intervene and we capture him alive. He will then be put on trial and then hung (Saddam).
                  3. Assad wins out over the "revolution" and remains in power using any means he can get away with.

                  So, as you can see, the only option for Assad is to kill the shit outta people until they stop. There is no alternative. So what do we do about it? I think it's none of our business and if it was really about human rights crimes we would have went into multiple African countries a long time ago. This whole thing smell like shit and will only end in massive amounts of bloodshed. This has been assured by the Western world.

                  Anyone see where there is a different option available? Is there a possible peaceful solution?
                  Assad's hope, IMO, at surviving is difficult. He has been backed into a corner. And chances are, if they kill him, his replacement will be no better.

                  What the US should be doing, if we had any sense at all, would be to have met with him, and tried to work out something that would benefit us, in exchange for him staying in power. We should have done the same with Saddam Hussein. We cannot change the world into an installment of the Lone Ranger, with the good guys wearing the white hats. The world has never been such. And this would have been the time to get more of what we wanted out of Assad. At least we know him, and don't have a clue as to who will replace him. Do you think a "good" leader will arise in Syria? That is laughable and silly.

                  For me, I hope China and Russia stands by him, and keeps outside interference from the West at bay. I am getting sick and tired of outside help and influence in these internal conflicts in the middle east, from the US and her allies. I see it as a kind of imperialism, the attitude of imperialism. We have no God given right to do what we have been doing for years. And it is making the world a more dangerous place. Not a place to put oneself in as the US declines economically, and can't solve its own economic and fiscal problems.

                  My bet is Assad will fall, perhaps killed, as we help in every way possible for this to occur. In his place will be another dictator, perhaps even worse than Assad, in so far as the US is concerned. And the US will have lost yet another chance at getting more of what we want, from Syria.

                  Does anyone here really think that Assad's enemies, the ones he is fighting are better than the Assad regime is? Anyone think these enemies of his are trying to being democracy,peace and a better life to that nation? Or do they just want to wrestled the power from him, so they can continue on with themselves as the dictator, instead of Assad?

                  I believe if we had kept our nose out of this affair, Assad would have crushed this rebellion, and took his nation back from his enemies, which I doubt are the assyrian people, but outsiders working with his enemies on the inside. And it is a long shot that his enemies want to be friends with the US.

                  מה מכילות החדשות?


                  • #10
                    Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

                    Originally posted by Blue Doggy View Post
                    Assad's hope, IMO, at surviving is difficult. He has been backed into a corner. And chances are, if they kill him, his replacement will be no better.

                    What the US should be doing, if we had any sense at all, would be to have met with him, and tried to work out something that would benefit us, in exchange for him staying in power. We should have done the same with Saddam Hussein. We cannot change the world into an installment of the Lone Ranger, with the good guys wearing the white hats. The world has never been such. And this would have been the time to get more of what we wanted out of Assad. At least we know him, and don't have a clue as to who will replace him. Do you think a "good" leader will arise in Syria? That is laughable and silly.

                    For me, I hope China and Russia stands by him, and keeps outside interference from the West at bay. I am getting sick and tired of outside help and influence in these internal conflicts in the middle east, from the US and her allies. I see it as a kind of imperialism, the attitude of imperialism. We have no God given right to do what we have been doing for years. And it is making the world a more dangerous place. Not a place to put oneself in as the US declines economically, and can't solve its own economic and fiscal problems.

                    My bet is Assad will fall, perhaps killed, as we help in every way possible for this to occur. In his place will be another dictator, perhaps even worse than Assad, in so far as the US is concerned. And the US will have lost yet another chance at getting more of what we want, from Syria.

                    Does anyone here really think that Assad's enemies, the ones he is fighting are better than the Assad regime is? Anyone think these enemies of his are trying to being democracy,peace and a better life to that nation? Or do they just want to wrestled the power from him, so they can continue on with themselves as the dictator, instead of Assad?

                    I believe if we had kept our nose out of this affair, Assad would have crushed this rebellion, and took his nation back from his enemies, which I doubt are the assyrian people, but outsiders working with his enemies on the inside. And it is a long shot that his enemies want to be friends with the US.
                    Our current regime wants the entire mideast to be a muslim ruled caliphate.

                    מה מכילות החדשות?


                    • #11
                      Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

                      Originally posted by OldmanDan View Post
                      Our current regime wants the entire mideast to be a muslim ruled caliphate.
                      Such silliness, from apparently educated people. If you actually believe this propaganda from the right side this turns you into someone no different than the followers of Jim Jones. The trouble with too many on the right, is they have lost all ability to use their own brains, and instead rely upon the twisted minds of some that are given great authority.

                      The propaganda that too many just accept is getting to the point of being unbelievable, ludicrous and dangerously stupid. I saw the same sadness when clinton was in office.
                      Some relatives who had drank the koolaid used to show me daily emails they would get from crazy right wingnuts, which they swallowed, hook, line and sinker. That Clinton did not publically give thanks to Satan never slowed em down in their silly beliefs. They just figured the right wing prophet got that one wrong! And then had a habit of forgetting the other prophesies that were wrong as well.

                      There are nuts on the left and the right. But the right always win in the nuttery, in who can be the biggest, most ridiculous nuts. And it seems the more educated the nut, the harder it is for them to realize they are nuts. But the nuts need to keep a wary eye out. The cosmic squirrel finds these sorts of nuts particularly tasty.And they end us as little piles of squirrel shit on the forest floor, with the rest of the excrement from non thinking forest animals. Which is exactly where they belong,IMO.

                      You got anything thoughtful to say about the OP, instead of relaying your right wing delusions? I am clean out of strait jackets. Hard to keep em in supply around here.

                      מה מכילות החדשות?


                      • #12
                        Re: Has the US or International Community guaranteed a violent resolution in Syria?

                        Originally posted by fishjoel View Post
                        I don't know. All I know is that everyone is calling for Assad to stop the violence. That's simply not a plausible option for him. The only way there could be a peaceful solution is if he was given a free pass to a country that would accept him with the promise that he would not be pursued as long as he never left that country. I believe that would be the best solution if people actually wanted a peaceful solution. It would involve a lot of people swallowing their pride and revenge. I don't see that as ever being on the table so the only solution will be extreme violence. This is especially true if his chemical weapons capabilities have any bite to them like has been indicated.
                        Not exactly pride and revenge. The reason goes back to Versailles 1918/19. Syria is one of those countries "created" at a drawing table by colonial powers after WW I out of several provinces of the ottoman empire, that the Ottomans had kept separated for good reason, and mixes ethnic and religious minorities to an explosive degree (similar to Iraq). The Assad family bases its rule on the Alawites mainly, an offspring of the shiite branch of Islam that especially sunnites Muslims view as something in between a sect and infidels. The Baath party, that the Assads and their cronies lead promotes a secular, panarabic policy vision and is for that reason supported by plenty of other arab speaking minorities, like the Christians and the Druzes and for the same reason widely loathed by religious Sunnites and Shiites. That is also why especially the Alawites ( that largely make up the leadership of police, army, secret services and other pillars of the regime) can be expected to fight till the last man unless someone with authority convinces them that there won´t be massive acts of revenge and expulsions once Assad is gone.
                        And there is not just that antagonism, there is also the conflict between Kurds and Arabs playing into this ( the Kurds are not so much interested in who leads Syria than wether the country falls apart and they can secede to form their own state), the eternal conflicts between various bedouin tribes, and between bedouin tribes and the urban population, and between Shiites and Sunnites. And then bloodshed in Syria will hardly leave Lebanon unaffected, where inter-ethnic and interreligious conflicts have only recently calmed down.
                        A peaceful solution would require to get at least all powers with influence around a table and to agree to stop their proxy armies and sympathizers from killing each other. That means not just the US, China, Russia and Europe, but also powers like Iran, Saudi-Arabia and Turkey. Together, in one room. Constructively. And then there is also Israel in the backround, since any settlement would also involve the israeli occupied Golan Heights. I´d say that says enough about the chances for it. It is the syrian state itself that is dysfunctional and how to get out of that mess, whose seeds were put in place almost a century ago ? I honestly don´t know. Since I see neither an authority that has the credibility to draw new borders.

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