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U.S. to worsen situation in Libya

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  • U.S. to worsen situation in Libya

    Yeah I'm being cynical but the U.S. is looking to arm vetted militias to fight against ISIS in Libya, sound familiar doesn't it? why does the government keep doing the same thing over and over again and keep expecting to see different results?

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36300525

  • #2
    Nobody likes the consequences of unbuilt nations, or nations "built" on tyranny, but nobody wants to make the effort to build them the right way.

    מה מכילות החדשות?


    • #3
      Originally posted by JDJarvis View Post
      Yeah I'm being cynical but the U.S. is looking to arm vetted militias to fight against ISIS in Libya, sound familiar doesn't it? why does the government keep doing the same thing over and over again and keep expecting to see different results?

      http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36300525
      Either like Einstein said, they are simply insane, OR, closer to the truth, this is driven by elites making a profit. When your economy moved from one that served to employ our people, to one that is only concerned about the profits for elites, which hollowed out America, what makes you think that the profit for elites does not drive foreign policy? That is what we do the same things over and over, making the situation worse. Once you understand what is controlling the US, it isn't insanity at all, if you are an elite. It's insane to everyone else. Or objectively insane behavior. You have to see this in a way that makes sense, and it only makes sense, in regards to our economy our foreign policy is you just follow the money upwards.

      מה מכילות החדשות?


      • #4
        Originally posted by JDJarvis View Post
        Yeah I'm being cynical but the U.S. is looking to arm vetted militias to fight against ISIS in Libya, sound familiar doesn't it? why does the government keep doing the same thing over and over again and keep expecting to see different results?

        http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36300525

        Well, to be fair, some kind of action seems inevitable, yet the reasons for that ( like the completely predictable breakdown of public order and governance that the IS is taking advantage of) should have been adressed FAR earlier. By those powers that until recently claimed to have "liberated" Libya, the US, the UK and France.
        IS has recently come under pressure in Syria and Iraq, from pro-governement forces in both countries on the ground, in Syria with russian air support, as well as US led bombings. That is why they appear to be relocating people, funds and leaders to Libya, also according to plenty of reports in the european press. Libya for them has the advantage of vast, barely populated areas, no functioning central governement ( actually several of them at each others throat), natural ressources that can be stolen and sold on the black market, and not least Libya is a far more convenient base to strike Europe.
        And there is one more point that concerns Europeans, even if Americans prefer to ignore it : refugees. Hundreds of thousands are considered to be waiting on the (partially IS - controlled) coastline to cross over to Italy. The majority of these people are mentioning Germany as their destination of choice (according to a recent study by the german and italian intelligence services presented by the german interior minister a couple of weeks ago). Yet Germany already hosts and accomodates more than a million of near eastern refugees, without making a lot of noise. Expecting us to pick up the bill once again, although we opposed smashing Ghadaffi WITHOUT political plan would lead to pretty ugly tensions however. And making sure that precisely this happens would be a pretty efficient way to destabilize Europe even without major terror attacks ( for interested parties).
        Who wants to avoid all that ( the IS establishing itself on the Mediterranean AND having to sort out even more refugees ) has to come up with intelligent ideas. Inevitably. Wether pouring more arms in a country with no shortage of arms is the way to go though I have my doubts admittedly.
        Last edited by Voland; 05-17-2016, 01:12 AM.

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        • #5
          When Germany and Japan were defeated in WW2 they weren't abandonded to rebuild on their own under the influence of local demagouges or left completely undefended against foreign invasion but there was of course an actual War where the nations in question were defeated.

          מה מכילות החדשות?


          • #6
            Originally posted by JDJarvis View Post
            When Germany and Japan were defeated in WW2 they weren't abandonded to rebuild on their own under the influence of local demagouges or left completely undefended against foreign invasion but there was of course an actual War where the nations in question were defeated.

            ​Well, Germany and Japan pretty much rebuilt on their own with some help ( the Marshall plan loans for example fixed Western Germanys problem of having no access to finance markets) . But both were actually nation states with a high degree of education, organization , management and know-how that also the war didn´t destroy. Libya is not even a nation state, it is a political entity that has never formed a state prior to colonial powers carving it out of the sand, with peoples that were never asked wether they wanted to share a state with each other, whose power center has been removed without plan for the aftermath. And thus the entire house of cards has collapsed.That is the problem in a nutshell. Intelligent ideas welcome.

            מה מכילות החדשות?


            • #7
              Originally posted by Voland View Post


              ​Well, Germany and Japan pretty much rebuilt on their own with some help ( the Marshall plan loans for example fixed Western Germanys problem of having no access to finance markets) . But both were actually nation states with a high degree of education, organization , management and know-how that also the war didn´t destroy. Libya is not even a nation state, it is a political entity that has never formed a state prior to colonial powers carving it out of the sand, with peoples that were never asked wether they wanted to share a state with each other, whose power center has been removed without plan for the aftermath. And thus the entire house of cards has collapsed.That is the problem in a nutshell. Intelligent ideas welcome.
              The situations in Germany and Japan were as favorable as they were becasue the allies didn't just bomb the heck out of the place, shoot a bunch of people, topple the government, and leave while financing a few local militias that were "well vetted" to keep order.

              Libya either needs the imposition of rule from outside, or a ruling party has to be recognized and actually supported well that is capable and willing to work in cooperation with the international community not just left to be the best armed gang. Leaving it to itself is impossible at this point.

              מה מכילות החדשות?


              • #8
                Originally posted by JDJarvis View Post

                The situations in Germany and Japan were as favorable as they were becasue the allies didn't just bomb the heck out of the place, shoot a bunch of people, topple the government, and leave while financing a few local militias that were "well vetted" to keep order.

                Libya either needs the imposition of rule from outside, or a ruling party has to be recognized and actually supported well that is capable and willing to work in cooperation with the international community not just left to be the best armed gang. Leaving it to itself is impossible at this point.

                Well, sort of. But Western Germany and Japan were also fundamentally functioning, cohesive, advanced societies with political, educational and administrative structures in place that helped rebuilding. Libya, in spite of its oil wealth, is none of that. And there lies the problem. It is a loose collection of tribes temporarily held together by a strongman.

                מה מכילות החדשות?


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Voland View Post


                  Well, sort of. But Western Germany and Japan were also fundamentally functioning, cohesive, advanced societies with political, educational and administrative structures in place that helped rebuilding. Libya, in spite of its oil wealth, is none of that. And there lies the problem. It is a loose collection of tribes temporarily held together by a strongman.
                  And we created a situation that allowed the murder of the the most recent effective strongman which left no one effective to support in his absence. Truth is Western political elites seem to lack the acuity of imagination to ponder how people in other political and social systems will react to power vacuums, which is baffling.

                  מה מכילות החדשות?


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by JDJarvis View Post
                    And we created a situation that allowed the murder of the the most recent effective strongman which left no one effective to support in his absence. Truth is Western political elites seem to lack the acuity of imagination to ponder how people in other political and social systems will react to power vacuums, which is baffling.
                    I find the insinuation that Gaddafi's rule was effective while Libya was in the middle of a civil war to be comical. Mostly because the terms "effective rule" and "civil war" go together like matter and anti-matter.

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                    • #11
                      m
                      Originally posted by JDJarvis View Post

                      And we created a situation that allowed the murder of the the most recent effective strongman which left no one effective to support in his absence. Truth is Western political elites seem to lack the acuity of imagination to ponder how people in other political and social systems will react to power vacuums, which is baffling.

                      ​Well, the Ottomans managed to rule modern Libya without major disruptions for 400/500 years. They turned its three big regions ( Tripolitania/western coast, Cyrenaika/eastern coast, and Fezzan /desert (Sahara) into provinces and granted its people internal autonomy more or less as long as taxes to the Sultan were coming in and public order stayed stable. The tribes along the coast were historical enemies but largely kept the peace, since the Ottomans weren´t joking and every now and then chopped a few heads off as a reminder who was in charge. And the bedouins in the south occasionally looted an oasis here or there, but usually they guided caravans through the desert and minded their own business. The modern mess started with first italian ( in the interwar-period ) and then british rule and the attempt to "unite" the disparate regions into one state called Libya ( that had never existed in history for a reason). Not to forget the thought that forcing a western style of governement on this "creation" was a good idea. The Brits imposed a king without power base ( except in his own tribe), a certain Idris al Senussi ( from the east) and left. Senussis own incompetence as well as the discovery of oil in eastern Libya ( that the eastern tribes had no intention to share with the rest of the country) led to him beeing chased out by a certain Colonel Ghadaffi ( a representative of a western tribe who also ensured the domination of his people for the next couple of decades.) That was also what the civil war was essentially about : A rather old-fashioned tribal struggle over the usual issues : Land, power and ressources.
                      The goal is clear : A stable political structure for Libya, tailored to its needs ( and not foreign powers geopolitical games) and getting rid of the IS. The way to go : Not at all clear. The easiest part may be to strike IS and at least force them to hide like rats in the desert instead of marching through cities. The political/nation building part ? FAR more tricky. Convincing people that are used to fight or at least mistrust each other of a political game according to rules always is. Probably I need to think about that some more.

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                      • #12
                        Armchair nation-building, are we? Once again (but that is one reason this forum exists). I've stated on other threads, my belief that the west (US, GB and France in this case) can supply some of the military control for destabilized areas, but we need a healthy serving of humble pie for the rest. The Turks did a better job of administering Libya -as Voland notes. The trick is finding a political solution for today's situation.

                        The Arab League comes to mind, but if they or dominant partners are botching things for religious and political ends elsewhere (Yemen comes to mind), we are back to the start of the game. A UN ad hoc union of ME states, including Iran? The western states could impose temporary stability thru military action. Permanent stability comes thru political administration afterwards, but the west can't give up on the false notion that military conquest solves all conflict. We also have a difficult time wrapping our minds around a political solution driven by a different culture.

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                        • #13

                          Originally posted by radcentr View Post
                          Armchair nation-building, are we? Once again (but that is one reason this forum exists). I've stated on other threads, my belief that the west (US, GB and France in this case) can supply some of the military control for destabilized areas, but we need a healthy serving of humble pie for the rest. The Turks did a better job of administering Libya -as Voland notes. The trick is finding a political solution for today's situation.

                          The Arab League comes to mind, but if they or dominant partners are botching things for religious and political ends elsewhere (Yemen comes to mind), we are back to the start of the game. A UN ad hoc union of ME states, including Iran? The western states could impose temporary stability thru military action. Permanent stability comes thru political administration afterwards, but the west can't give up on the false notion that military conquest solves all conflict. We also have a difficult time wrapping our minds around a political solution driven by a different culture.
                          ​Yup, that´s one of the key questions. Who can provide enough stability to allow a nation building effort ( that is not at all guaranteed to be sucessful) to proceed ? The Arab league ? Most members can barely keep stability at home. Not to mention that some of its rather important countries have not exactly exported stability to Syria, Yemen or Iraq recently ( Saudi-Arabia ? UAE ? Quatar ?).
                          The "West" ? Is internally divided. Some countries ( notably Germany and other central Europeans) have never shared the US/UKs appetite for "intervention" in the Near East/North Africa and feel confirmed in their scepticism by the way things worked out in Iraq, Syria or Libya. Not least because the US/UK have so far not come up with more astute ideas than arming this or that militia that somehow, maybe, certainly will do the job. A pattern familiar from such magnificient successes like Syria or Iraq.
                          And it happens to be more or less the same group of countries that ( not without justification) accuse the US/UK of blatant hyprocrisy when it comes to the refugee crisis ( "....playing geopolitics in the name of values but pulling up the drawbridge when refugees are heading your way.."). A new wave as a result of a botched stabilization attempt or continued chaos in Libya ( hundreds of thousands are apparently sitting on the coastline and thousands have already arrived by boat in southern Italy) would lead to serious inner-western rifts, especially if the US/UK continue to hide behind their maritime borders and claim that handling the humanitarian crisis was somebody elses ( read : our) business. It might be thinkable to share a mission, like the US/UK/France mainly going after IS and the Germans/Dutch etc. mainly training police, army and administration, help getting infrastructure going etc. but wether the "West" as a whole can find the patience, the cultural sensibility, and also the will to bear the cost of such a mission can be reasonably called in doubt.
                          Under different circumstances Turkey might be an ideal candidate ( or a NATO mission under turkish leadership), yet Turkey has its own issues with increasingly authoritarian rule and simmering civil unrest currently, so maybe not.
                          And anyway : Sucessful stabilization requires at least to have transition leaders respected across the boundaries of regions and tribes and unsuspicious of beeing western or other puppets. And as long as someone like that is not visible ( like in Syria) the entire discussion about stabilization is going nowhere sadly.
                          An idea ( awfully complicated, just like this entire mess, but probably not the most stupid one) : An international force under UN mandate led by a neutral country unsuspicious of playing political games ( Norway or Finland come to mind, or Switzerland f.e.) under participation of as many muslim nations as possible ( regional neighbours like Tunisia or Morocco come to mind, but also muslim nations with a healthy distance from the regional arena, like Indonesia or Malaysia. Under the umbrella of this force the nations that botched the first Libya "Intervention", like the US/UK/France would be mainly responsible for counterterrorism/fight against IS, while the EU as a whole, probably led by a nation with credentials in management/administration and without colonial/interventionist history,in the region ( Germany, but also the Netherlands, Sweden or Austria f.e.) would lead the nationbuilding effort. The muslim participants would contribute firepower where necessary, but more importantly cultural sensitivity and signal the supranational/supracultural nature of the effort. The force would start by securing the most important cities on the coast, disarming and/or chasing out militias, get infrastructure up and running, and create pockets of stability, that would be enlarged step by step, and defended if necessary. The next step would be to secure the oil fields from the hands of IS as well as other militias, since they would be the base of any economic recovery. Local authorities, as long as up to the job, would recieve support carrying out their duties, and any impression of imposing rule from outside has to be avoided carefully. Ideally the force would be able to secure at the least the population centres within a reasonable timeframe and in the process also dig up a handful of local leaders with integrity to carry a transition ( that ultimately spreads to the rest of the Country). Libya would also have an advantage : A source of money ( vast natural ressources). But that is obviously the optimistic Scenario.


                          http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu...-idUSKCN0XC1WL
                          Last edited by Voland; 05-18-2016, 02:37 AM.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Commodore View Post

                            I find the insinuation that Gaddafi's rule was effective while Libya was in the middle of a civil war to be comical. Mostly because the terms "effective rule" and "civil war" go together like matter and anti-matter.
                            And gaddafi would have handled his situation, if the west and others in the middle east has stayed out of it. For it takes money, to wage a civil war, and generally states have more of it than a band of people who want a caliphate. Perhaps one day, we will have outsiders try to overthrow the ruling powers in the US. But in that case, you would not like it, and see it as wrong. And therein lies the utter hypocrisy.

                            You know what the truth really is? The US is not a good nor intelligent nation at all. She is just as evil as the people she goes to remove. It is driven by profits for the elites of the world. And only by the stupidity of the American voter, does this evil continue. Let the other nations be evil, and let us make a choice to mind our own business, and stay out of the business of others, unless it is a real threat like some madman who wants to rule all of the world, like hitler. Save the lives and treasure for the threats to humanity. Yet we have been at war with someone my entire life. And I am old. We have meddled in the world in the interest of our elites making money for way too long. And only madmen would support such a paradigm. Or people with basically evil seething from their very being. Just remember, those who do evil, like hitler and his cohorts, never saw themselves as evil. Such people never do.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Blue Doggy View Post
                              And gaddafi would have handled his situation...
                              ..and the blood flowing freely in the streets would be just as much on the hands of supposedly "good people" who do nothing as they would be on Gaddafi's.

                              But I guess your ok with that.

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