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Obama negotiates "peace in his time"...

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  • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

    Originally posted by OldmanDan View Post
    I'm saying that making life easier for them will accomplish nothing. It seems to me that this administration has simply resigned itself to the fact that Iran will soon become a nuclear power.
    And I am asking, still, what is the alternative? Back to sanctions in hope they work this time or take over the country?

    מה מכילות החדשות?


    • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

      Originally posted by Blue Doggy View Post
      I dunno oldman, It very well might be hard for Iran to commit suicide, even if they think by doing so it helps speed up the endtimes. It is one thing for a few insane muslims to volunteer to commit suicide in order to kill others, but quite another to have an entire population with leaders at the top who seem to like being in their position of power. These men in Iran love their position of power just as much as an US politician loves their position. Would they commit suicide and lose that power? You say sure, but I am not so sure.

      Of course we had the kamikazes of ww2, but we didn't have the emperor and his court doing it against the enemy. You always convince others to give up their lives for you. LOL.

      I know many in the west think Iran would commit suicide with nukes if they had them, but you know what? I can't buy that hook line and sinker. It isn't a "given". It is nothing more than an opinion.

      It seems more obvious that Iran might want nukes to insure they are not attacked, that they are a great power in the middle east and other nations around them might be less likely to mess with their national security. Less chance of being invaded. Afterall this is one respect that all nations at some point in time worry about and for good reason given the history of humanity on this planet. We have tended to invade and conquer and to take what the other has. That is man's history. Anyone with a brain would be concerned about such things. Especially in that part of the world where Iran was invaded by Iraq not that long ago. Muslims fighting muslims, sunni and shite.

      That we should stay out of religious conflicts would be an intelligent thing to do, but we have a very poor record since ww2 of being intelligent. And we have of course to reap what we sow. Even the great nation of America is not exempt from what some called karma. That we think we should be is the real absurdity here. LOL.
      A couple of radicals with a nuke in the back of their minivan could wipe Tel Aviv off the map. Do you think we would wipe out Iran if they did that? When these things proliferate, the chance of them going missing gets greater. It's too late when one of these rogue devices goes off in L.A.

      מה מכילות החדשות?


      • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

        Originally posted by Sluggo View Post
        And I am asking, still, what is the alternative? Back to sanctions in hope they work this time or take over the country?
        Iran could be isolated from the world with proper diplomacy.

        מה מכילות החדשות?


        • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

          Originally posted by OldmanDan View Post
          Iran could be isolated from the world with proper diplomacy.
          Ok, so sanctions. How would you go about accomplishing isolating them from the world?

          מה מכילות החדשות?


          • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

            Originally posted by Sluggo View Post
            Ok, so sanctions. How would you go about accomplishing isolating them from the world?
            I don't believe there are many countries in the world who want to see Iran get nuclear weapons. The Russians only help them out to spite us. A little diplomacy with Russia could stop that.

            מה מכילות החדשות?


            • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

              Originally posted by OldmanDan View Post
              I don't believe there are many countries in the world who want to see Iran get nuclear weapons. The Russians only help them out to spite us. A little diplomacy with Russia could stop that.
              Really? You believe that diplomacy with Russia (and anyone else that *might* help Iran) would keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Russians do not like us all that much nor trust us, and have shown a repeated pattern of doing plenty to spite us. How would you handle that?

              It still comes down to the same thing. The belief we can sanction Iran from a Nuclear weapon (which has not seemed to really work to date, perhaps just slowed them down.)

              מה מכילות החדשות?


              • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

                Originally posted by radcentr View Post
                Yes, I know mossad isn't under every Iranian bed. They still own the casino, and they won't let Iran win serious money.

                The end game: Iran gets nukes, uses them on Israel (or the US) and assuming they have capable missiles- takes out a city or two. Israel (and/or US) makes them a wasteland in very short order, with no return. Iran is destroyed, while her target is merely debilitated.
                No country defends them (arguably less than North Korea in that respect), no country defends their demise, they conquer no one, they get nothing, and make no point.

                Israel wants the sanctions because it makes Iran marginally weaker; the sanctions don't do anything to prevent the country from getting a nuke if they really want one. Israel knows this, but won't discuss that point in public. Worth repeating; Israel wants a slight advantage that sanctions provide, but knows they don't deal with the nuke issue.

                To stop the nuke issue, there are two options: The graduated lifting of sanctions, while allowing Iran to save face and scale back their program, restricted to power plants. If they try nuclear weapons exchange, Israel pulls the trigger. One nation definitely ceases to exist and is definitely partitioned by others in that case: Iran. Israel might also cease to exist, but that assumes Iran hides it's program, gets enuf capable missiles and actually delivers on target. Chances are slim to none.

                The other option: Invade Iran. That goes over poorly; more like a flaming turd in the punch bowl, just to make sure people at a distance from the problem are equally offended. Neighboring countries that would otherwise love to see Iran calm down or die, are now obligated to defend her from another infidel invasion in the region. On the map, it looks like a B-movie rendition of Alexander the Great: where does the US stop, people will ask, ...India maybe? China and Russia will be less than thrilled with a rival's puppet state on their underbelly. Of course, that will not be our intention, but we will be the only ones who actually believe that. On top of that, we find empty missile silos and no nukes. Repeat of Iraqi "intelligence" reports, anyone?

                No thanks. Israel won't like it, but we can throw in a few of our own intelligence resources to boost their confidence. Let them handle the heavy lifting, which most likely will never come to more than a quiet, but very real threat, to Iran's existence. If by some very small chance Israel is destroyed, the US and Russia partition Iran and have permanent, military colonies on her remains. Knowing that is the most likely outcome (under the most optimistic scenario), Iran's leadership won't go there.



                With one exception, that of the US, nukes have always been a deterrent not a tactical weapon. Iran is Persia, one of the oldest cultures on the planet. I doubt they have not thought it through to the inevitable conclusion that using ONE, would mean their end.

                You cannot look at the situation unilaterally. There is a reason Jordan and Saudi Arabia are pissed at this, simply having the bomb gives Iran superiority in the region; they can now dictate a lot of what happens.

                Russia see Iran having the bomb as an equalizer. The US has eclipsed Russia militarily and both she and China now consider her as a Hyper Power and a threat to them. Russia is doing no more than the US in supplying arms to is "allies", however it appears Russia's allies are far more loyal than Obama's.

                מה מכילות החדשות?


                • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

                  Originally posted by Sluggo View Post
                  Ok, so sanctions. How would you go about accomplishing isolating them from the world?
                  That chance has been squandered.

                  The sanctions were working, albeit slowly. There has been an exodus of sorts of Persians leaving Iran because of the economy.

                  Now that the funds have been restored, there is no incentive, and its back to square one. The Iranians saw a weak leader in Obama, a man needing some home cred and capitalized on it.

                  The only non-military means now is diplomatically. And Mr. Obama and Mr. Kerry don't seem to understand that it's not a sales position.

                  מה מכילות החדשות?


                  • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

                    Originally posted by FearandLoathing View Post
                    That chance has been squandered.

                    The sanctions were working, albeit slowly. There has been an exodus of sorts of Persians leaving Iran because of the economy.

                    Now that the funds have been restored, there is no incentive, and its back to square one. The Iranians saw a weak leader in Obama, a man needing some home cred and capitalized on it.

                    The only non-military means now is diplomatically. And Mr. Obama and Mr. Kerry don't seem to understand that it's not a sales position.
                    Finally, someone willing to come out of the clouds to talk about this. Much thanks.

                    My issue is during these sanctions, Iran obtained help from Russia to build Bushehr 1 somewhere between 2010 to 2011. We should have known then sanctions were going to end in failure as prior to that it was reported Iran was working on a nuclear program. IAEA has been talking about this for a very long time now. We have suspected Iran since 2003 (really before in acquisition over internal development) of a weapons program in association with energy. They get one, it is only a matter of time before they get the other. Well, they got energy.

                    Sure sanctions took an effect during all this, a real economic effect for their people. Did not really seem to deter Iran's attention from nuclear ambition. And even obtain help, even if indirect. The lesson is we cannot control all OldmanDan claims we can. You say they were working, I'd ask how given where we are today.

                    What I will concede is Iran is taking advantage of how terrible Obama's foreign policy really is. We have a mess all over the region and one could argue North Korea is even getting in on the action. But what I will not concede is that sanctions were really working back then under other administrations or Obama's, nor will they work now. In my opinion, we screwed around for way too long to go back. Saying should have does not really help. Some are saying Obama threw Israel under the bus... I say we did so a long way back and I'm not entirely convinced that is all bad. Where we are now is try a deal or go to war.

                    I've asked repeatedly for something plausible as an alternative to this deal or war, and it appears there is not one. I find is remarkably ignorant to suggest we can all of a sudden control Russia now.

                    מה מכילות החדשות?


                    • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

                      Originally posted by OldmanDan View Post
                      Iran could be isolated from the world with proper diplomacy.
                      Why? I think Iran is more stable and less extremist than Pakistan and Pakistan has never used their nukes. In fact, since the invention of nuclear weapons there has only been one country that has used them on another. After that, nuclear weapons have actually been a fairly stabilizing force in the world. If a country has a nuke they are less likely to be attacked.

                      מה מכילות החדשות?


                      • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

                        Sanctions are a policy of failure. I would like to see one time where sanctions have worked.

                        מה מכילות החדשות?


                        • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

                          Originally posted by PrometheusBound
                          Cowards and traitors can save face by calling everybody else immature. When I was 12, I was more of a man than you'll ever be.
                          He wasn't calling everyone else immature, he was saying that you're immature. What you said was nothing but a grand biggest bully on the playground scenario. I didn't think that that was a legitimate strategy for foreign policy.

                          מה מכילות החדשות?


                          • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

                            Originally posted by OldmanDan View Post
                            The fact that you ignore is that those who would fire missiles at us or Israel are zealots who believe that dying for their cause is an admirable thing. The who theory of mutually assured destruction only applies to those who fear being destroyed, not those who embrace it. I understand, that is hard for us to comprehend but it is not for them.
                            They have to get something, even an intangible, in exchange for attacking. There is no end time required if Israel retaliates; Tehran is gone, and Iran shuts down before it is occupied -er, I mean "rescued" by Russia. It is not required even if Israel loses a city.

                            The End only happens when an exchange escalates. Maybe you see Pakistan or Russia getting involved? There is no reason to believe that. Iran gets nothing, not even 72 virgins for a handful of egomaniacal clerics if they attack. Because the retaliation would leave most everyone's population intact, the world survives, and the state of a sovereign Iran ceases to exist.

                            מה מכילות החדשות?


                            • Re: Obama negotiates &amp;quot;peace in his time&amp;quot;...

                              Originally posted by Voland View Post
                              Their nukes ? Not even the Israelis are claiming that Iran already has nukes. And wether it would actually get them and operational ones depends on numerous factors. But probably you got insider knowledge that the Mossad would be grateful for sharing ? There are on the other hand also israeli analysts that don´t consider the deal to be bad at all : It won´t turn Ayatollah Khamenei into the chief rabbi of Teheran, but it does a better job at distancing the mullahs from the nuke than thirty years of sabre rattling have accomplished. With daily unannounced controls, without new centrifuges and the sufficiently enriched uranium under international eyes it is pretty difficult to build a bomb ( and the lifting of sanctions is explicitly reversible under the deal. If the other side is found to be cheating by the nuclear inspectors we are back to business as usual).
                              But by the way : If in November 2012 someone had predicted that within one year Syrias chemical weapons would be handed over and destroyed and Iran would sign a deal that SIGNIFICANTLY curtails its nuclear capabilities that would have been dismissed as fairytales, right ? :
                              The issue, Voland, here is not only Iran's nukes ambitions but it's hostile behavior since their 70's revolution. Let me elaborate. Since the revolution, Iran has:

                              - tried to export its revolution to the region
                              - Attacked Saudis and Americans in Khobar bombings
                              - hosted/ing Al Qaeda leaders
                              - carried terrorist attacks in Syria, lebanon, argentine, palestine
                              - planted terrorist cells in gulf states
                              - destabilized the Palestinian-Israeli peace process
                              - ignited the almost dead tensions between Sunnis and Shias
                              - carried terrorist attacks in Iraq (Sadr)
                              - destabilized lebanon and terrorized its civilians by sponsoring Hezbollah ideologically, financially and militarily
                              - plotted a terrorist attack to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in washington.

                              - and ironically the current (re-elected) Iranian president Rouhani have made a peaceful deal with the Saudis (Naif-Rouhani agreement) in the 90s but Iran continued its hostile behavior.

                              and just recently (post 5+1 deal) Iranian foreign minister offered to visit Saudi and he was welcomed but somehow the Iranian controlled media is accusing Saudi of rejecting its offer to visit and therefore their peaceful gestures. Maybe everyone is playing propaganda here but does Iranian behavior hint to any “come clean” and make peace with everyone?

                              You get the idea. There's a trust issue and Iran isn't helping to build restore that trust.

                              I really hope with my heart that Iran is changing its behavior since it will bring a much needed little peace in this crazy region but is Iran willing to stop or even lessen their hostile behavior in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, djibouti, Sudan, Gaza, Bahrain and Iraq. Is that possible? We don’t want PR campaigns of how Iran is nice now..we want tangible things..we want to talk to those who are really in power, aka revolutionary guard...we need to talk seriously about a collective deal that ensures a peaceful and prosperous region..not about tweets and hugs...

                              Saudis are not willing to trust them, really. The 5+1 team can test their diplomacy/negotiation theories and see if it works, but they are playing with the region's destiny, without even inviting the parties who're most affected by this agreement (Israel, Saudi, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, etc) to the table....Civilian Saudis are more worried about their families being bombed (whether with nukes or others)... because this deal will mean either that Iran will get nukes and then the deterrent to do more terrorizing. Or giving up their nukes in return for regional hegemony, which will mean chaos and terrorism.

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                              • Re: Obama negotiates &quot;peace in his time&quot;...

                                Originally posted by radcentr View Post
                                Yes, I know mossad isn't under every Iranian bed. They still own the casino, and they won't let Iran win serious money.

                                The end game: Iran gets nukes, uses them on Israel (or the US) and assuming they have capable missiles- takes out a city or two. Israel (and/or US) makes them a wasteland in very short order, with no return. Iran is destroyed, while her target is merely debilitated.
                                No country defends them (arguably less than North Korea in that respect), no country defends their demise, they conquer no one, they get nothing, and make no point.

                                Israel wants the sanctions because it makes Iran marginally weaker; the sanctions don't do anything to prevent the country from getting a nuke if they really want one. Israel knows this, but won't discuss that point in public. Worth repeating; Israel wants a slight advantage that sanctions provide, but knows they don't deal with the nuke issue.

                                To stop the nuke issue, there are two options: The graduated lifting of sanctions, while allowing Iran to save face and scale back their program, restricted to power plants. If they try nuclear weapons exchange, Israel pulls the trigger. One nation definitely ceases to exist and is definitely partitioned by others in that case: Iran. Israel might also cease to exist, but that assumes Iran hides it's program, gets enuf capable missiles and actually delivers on target. Chances are slim to none.

                                The other option: Invade Iran. That goes over poorly; more like a flaming turd in the punch bowl, just to make sure people at a distance from the problem are equally offended. Neighboring countries that would otherwise love to see Iran calm down or die, are now obligated to defend her from another infidel invasion in the region. On the map, it looks like a B-movie rendition of Alexander the Great: where does the US stop, people will ask, ...India maybe? China and Russia will be less than thrilled with a rival's puppet state on their underbelly. Of course, that will not be our intention, but we will be the only ones who actually believe that. On top of that, we find empty missile silos and no nukes. Repeat of Iraqi "intelligence" reports, anyone?

                                No thanks. Israel won't like it, but we can throw in a few of our own intelligence resources to boost their confidence. Let them handle the heavy lifting, which most likely will never come to more than a quiet, but very real threat, to Iran's existence. If by some very small chance Israel is destroyed, the US and Russia partition Iran and have permanent, military colonies on her remains. Knowing that is the most likely outcome (under the most optimistic scenario), Iran's leadership won't go there.
                                A fine summary, if you ignore the intangibles like iran being run by a theocracy with martyrdom principles. You summary is based on a RATIONAL enemy who bases his decisions on his TEMPORAL welfare. I think we can agree that iran does not fit that definition very well.
                                You also missed an option on Irans side. They produce enough radioactive material (not just weapons grade or reactor grade but waste as well) to make dozens of dirty bombs, they apportion said dirty bombs out to various terror groups worldwide and set them all off more or less at the same time around us and us allied interests. Naval bases, missile defense sites etc (crippling attack and defense), cities (killing swathes of people immediately and in the coming years while vastly increasing costs by creating walking wounded and crippled folk for decades to come), major interstate corridors (crippling trade and response by allocation of resources). Hell put them on a few model rockets and shoot them into the atmo to cause significant fallout and em interference. The US ceases to exist as a world power at that point, much less a nation. It would dissolve FAST as divided as we already are. It would be like striking cracked safety glass.
                                And that is something I just came up with off the top of my head. There are a plethora of other possibilities, most of them bad.

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