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How to get the United States rolling again

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  • #31
    Re: How to get the United States rolling again

    Originally posted by Wlessard View Post
    Keynsian is being tried, it just ISN'T being followed through on the BOOM time by either side. Austrian style economics are better. Obama has been flooding the economy with stimulus money and it HAS NOT WORKED.
    You see, this tells me you are unsure what Keynes did and did not suggest. Obama is not flooding the economy with stimulus money and what little he has done in that respect was harmed by his own regulation and entitlement expansion mentality.

    I'll make this simple. Keynes suggested three things about dealing with a recession.

    1. Reduce interest rates via monetary policy.
    2. Government spending in infrastructure via fiscal policy.
    3. Get the government out of the way via tax and economic policy (regulation reductions.)

    Now, you tell me... you really think that is what Obama is (has been) doing? Seems to me that expansion of government in just about every way, noticeable increases in regulations and government presence, various degrees of government economic micromanagement, and the largest expansion of entitlements of our generation is not quite what Keynes was suggesting.

    If you disagree, go find for me where Keynes said the best way to deal with a recession is to do what Obama and crew have been doing. Good luck...

    If you want to debate "Austrian style economics" then I am down with that, tell me what you think they suggest for our current situation with economic aggregate demand concerns.

    Originally posted by Wlessard View Post
    Isn't this about what I said?

    Roll back the Federal to controlling what it did before the Civil War. Let the States decide what they want. Meanwhile keeping ALL the Amendments except 16 and 17 and that would be a big step.

    We were warned about Presidents like Obama and about things like a national bank - Federal Reserve. Jefferson, Adams and many other Founders told us to beware. Well we have been masturbating in a corner and ignored the signs and we are going down the slope again.
    At the risk of being rude, I've questioned much of what you said given all the mistakes made on what Keynes did and did not advocate.

    מה מכילות החדשות?


    • #32
      Re: How to get the United States rolling again

      Originally posted by Sluggo View Post
      You see, this tells me you are unsure what Keynes did and did not suggest. Obama is not flooding the economy with stimulus money and what little he has done in that respect was harmed by his own regulation and entitlement expansion mentality.

      I'll make this simple. Keynes suggested three things about dealing with a recession.

      1. Reduce interest rates via monetary policy.
      2. Government spending in infrastructure via fiscal policy.
      3. Get the government out of the way via tax and economic policy (regulation reductions.)
      I have been through 4 pages today about Keynes. NONE of them even suggest number 3. Not one of the pages. I went through extra because I didn't want to base my statements just on Wiki. We all know that is quasi reliable.

      Now, you tell me... you really think that is what Obama is (has been) doing? Seems to me that expansion of government in just about every way, noticeable increases in regulations and government presence, various degrees of government economic micromanagement, and the largest expansion of entitlements of our generation is not quite what Keynes was suggesting.

      If you disagree, go find for me where Keynes said the best way to deal with a recession is to do what Obama and crew have been doing. Good luck...

      If you want to debate "Austrian style economics" then I am down with that, tell me what you think they suggest for our current situation with economic aggregate demand concerns.



      At the risk of being rude, I've questioned much of what you said given all the mistakes made on what Keynes did and did not advocate.
      Obama has been pushing for a more socialist nation.

      As for Keynes, he did not think that businesses could run themselves without help from the Government or from a central bank. Unlike Keynes I do not believe any country can maintain a 100% employment. I think he ignores that supply and demand are not just the products and services someone sells but the people to do the work. You will always have those who refuse to work and you will have those like me who will work till the day I die no matter what income I am making simply because I cannot abide sitting around doing nothing.

      The government should not be passing out stimulus money at all. They start picking winners and losers not based on market but on whim.

      Back to 123.... 1: At close to 0 interest rate we have no where to go. Once you hit 0 that is it.
      2: Infrastructure outside of Michigan is not a permanent solution. Michigan seems to do construction year round on the same roads but they are an abnormality.

      What is left is cutting government back. Starting with pork and moving on to real meat.

      As another thread points out they are going to look at borrowing from FICA. Seriously if I could have one singly thing I would cut government by 25% then fight for 25% more. Give me one thing and that is it.

      And yes, stupid regulations, excessive taxes and too tight a control on the economy are causing more problems than we need and it is all in the name of a centralized control. Other industrialized nations have trouble running their economies when their countries on the size of one of our average States, how can anyone think our Federal can run a country this size.


      BTW

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...ntirely-wrong/

      מה מכילות החדשות?


      • #33
        Re: How to get the United States rolling again

        C'mon we're not even Military Keynesiasts much less the garden variety Keynesiasts!

        In 1933, John Maynard Keynes wrote an open letter to President Franklin Roosevelt urging the new president to borrow money to be spent on public works programs.[3]

        “Thus as the prime mover in the first stage of the technique of recovery I lay overwhelming emphasis on the increase of national purchasing power resulting from governmental expenditure which is financed by Loans and not by taxing present incomes. Nothing else counts in comparison with this. In a boom inflation can be caused by allowing unlimited credit to support the excited enthusiasm of business speculators. But in a slump governmental Loan expenditure is the only sure means of securing quickly a rising output at rising prices. That is why a war has always caused intense industrial activity. In the past orthodox finance has regarded a war as the only legitimate excuse for creating employment by governmental expenditure. You, Mr President, having cast off such fetters, are free to engage in the interests of peace and prosperity the technique which hitherto has only been allowed to serve the purposes of war and destruction.
        Military Keynesianism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
        In the present there's no such thing as orthodox finance! The only legitimate excuse is making shareholders & CEO's happy! Peace & prosperity? Only hippies (& Elvis Costello) seem to wonder & ask what's so funny 'bout peace, love, & understanding?

        מה מכילות החדשות?


        • #34
          Re: How to get the United States rolling again

          Stimulus thru warfare is accurate only for psychotics who get a sexual thrill out of mass destruction. We have grown up since the "economic stimulus -thru war-" hypothesis was accepted.
          Today, policy makers see war not as an economic stimulus but as a generator of expenses that have to be covered one way or the other, with negative effects on both the government budget and the private economy.
          Is War a Generator of Expenses or an Economic Stimulus? - Virginia Postrel

          Any economic activity on a larger scale has to consider life-cycle costs, whether it is gov't. stimulus or projects in the private sector. War/stimulus hypothesis tended to disregard part of the cost equation, including lost labor, infrastructure and productive activity that was lost during warfare. Veterans are also a conveniently forgotten expense, as longer-term medical costs accumulate long after a war ends.

          מה מכילות החדשות?


          • #35
            Re: How to get the United States rolling again

            Originally posted by radcentr View Post
            Stimulus thru warfare is accurate only for psychotics who get a sexual thrill out of mass destruction. We have grown up since the "economic stimulus -thru war-" hypothesis was accepted.

            Is War a Generator of Expenses or an Economic Stimulus? - Virginia Postrel

            Any economic activity on a larger scale has to consider life-cycle costs, whether it is gov't. stimulus or projects in the private sector. War/stimulus hypothesis tended to disregard part of the cost equation, including lost labor, infrastructure and productive activity that was lost during warfare. Veterans are also a conveniently forgotten expense, as longer-term medical costs accumulate long after a war ends.
            That article was written in 2003 & from it:

            As for the war in Iraq, it is tiny compared with previous wars.
            >10 years later & unfunded.

            מה מכילות החדשות?


            • #36
              Re: How to get the United States rolling again

              I could get the nation economically moving again... tomorrow. And not raise taxes, and not spend a dime of government tax money.

              Easy as pie...

              מה מכילות החדשות?


              • #37
                Re: How to get the United States rolling again

                Originally posted by tsquare View Post
                I could get the nation economically moving again... tomorrow. And not raise taxes, and not spend a dime of government tax money.

                Easy as pie...
                Please let us know! If it's easy as pie, I'm sure it will be easy to sell to us all. (who doesn't like pie?)

                (̅_̅_̅(̅(̅_̅_̅_̅_̅_̅̅()ڪ

                Am I gonna be sorry?

                מה מכילות החדשות?


                • #38
                  Re: How to get the United States rolling again

                  Originally posted by Voland View Post
                  That depends who the US wants to compete with, the manufacturers of premium products (where research, innovation and quality matters and justifies high salaries) or the makers of cheap consumer goods (that can be relatively easily automatized or shipped off).
                  Actually Germany ( and a number of other sucessful manufacturers, like Japan and South Korea, but also Switzerland and the scandinavian nations) have ADDED manufacturing jobs in spite of high automation and global financial turmoil. ...
                  US might have cultural differences that would make that sort of manufacturing (labor) organization difficult. We're too independent to go for work-rotation teams (like SAAB has, f.e.) I would like to see that tried more extensively in the US anyway. I would like very much to be proven wrong and see this model prosper in the US as well.

                  מה מכילות החדשות?


                  • #39
                    Re: How to get the United States rolling again

                    Originally posted by Quinn View Post
                    Please let us know! If it's easy as pie, I'm sure it will be easy to sell to us all. (who doesn't like pie?)

                    (̅_̅_̅(̅(̅_̅_̅_̅_̅_̅̅()ڪ

                    Am I gonna be sorry?
                    Yes, likely you are.

                    1. Cut depreciation by 50% across the board.

                    2. Make passive losses fully deductible against real income... again.

                    3. Drop the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%

                    4. Drop the corporate tax rate from 35% to 10% on all monies held offshore and brought back to the US only if used for direct hiring or to build plant and equipment.

                    The economy would explode in less than six months...

                    מה מכילות החדשות?


                    • #40
                      Re: How to get the United States rolling again

                      Originally posted by radcentr View Post
                      Stimulus thru warfare is accurate only for psychotics who get a sexual thrill out of mass destruction. We have grown up since the "economic stimulus -thru war-" hypothesis was accepted.

                      Is War a Generator of Expenses or an Economic Stimulus? - Virginia Postrel

                      Any economic activity on a larger scale has to consider life-cycle costs, whether it is gov't. stimulus or projects in the private sector. War/stimulus hypothesis tended to disregard part of the cost equation, including lost labor, infrastructure and productive activity that was lost during warfare. Veterans are also a conveniently forgotten expense, as longer-term medical costs accumulate long after a war ends.
                      Isn't this the military industrial complex Ike warned about?

                      (̅_̅_̅(̅(̅_̅_̅_̅_̅_̅̅()ڪ

                      Originally posted by tsquare View Post
                      Yes, likely you are.

                      1. Cut depreciation by 50% across the board.

                      2. Make passive losses fully deductible against real income... again.

                      3. Drop the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%

                      4. Drop the corporate tax rate from 35% to 10% on all monies held offshore and brought back to the US only if used for direct hiring or to build plant and equipment.

                      The economy would explode in less than six months...
                      Most likely but how are we to keep the entitlement generation from going balistic when their welfare slips due to lack of money.

                      Always a complication.

                      מה מכילות החדשות?


                      • #41
                        Re: How to get the United States rolling again

                        Originally posted by tsquare View Post
                        Yes, likely you are.

                        1. Cut depreciation by 50% across the board.

                        2. Make passive losses fully deductible against real income... again.

                        3. Drop the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%

                        4. Drop the corporate tax rate from 35% to 10% on all monies held offshore and brought back to the US only if used for direct hiring or to build plant and equipment.

                        The economy would explode in less than six months...
                        You realize you're asking for strings attached? That alone is against the 'business as usual' type of deals we typically look at as 'keeping face' where in reality we're doing no such thing.

                        מה מכילות החדשות?


                        • #42
                          Re: How to get the United States rolling again

                          Originally posted by Wlessard View Post
                          I have been through 4 pages today about Keynes. NONE of them even suggest number 3. Not one of the pages. I went through extra because I didn't want to base my statements just on Wiki. We all know that is quasi reliable.

                          Obama has been pushing for a more socialist nation.

                          As for Keynes, he did not think that businesses could run themselves without help from the Government or from a central bank. Unlike Keynes I do not believe any country can maintain a 100% employment. I think he ignores that supply and demand are not just the products and services someone sells but the people to do the work. You will always have those who refuse to work and you will have those like me who will work till the day I die no matter what income I am making simply because I cannot abide sitting around doing nothing.

                          The government should not be passing out stimulus money at all. They start picking winners and losers not based on market but on whim.

                          Back to 123.... 1: At close to 0 interest rate we have no where to go. Once you hit 0 that is it.
                          2: Infrastructure outside of Michigan is not a permanent solution. Michigan seems to do construction year round on the same roads but they are an abnormality.

                          What is left is cutting government back. Starting with pork and moving on to real meat.

                          As another thread points out they are going to look at borrowing from FICA. Seriously if I could have one singly thing I would cut government by 25% then fight for 25% more. Give me one thing and that is it.

                          And yes, stupid regulations, excessive taxes and too tight a control on the economy are causing more problems than we need and it is all in the name of a centralized control. Other industrialized nations have trouble running their economies when their countries on the size of one of our average States, how can anyone think our Federal can run a country this size.


                          BTW

                          Japan Is About To Prove Keynesian Economics Entirely Wrong - Forbes
                          Not much wrong with the article, except we have no been doing much in terms of economic principles but political ambitions. If we had really tried Keynes principles then there would be little reason for government micromanagement, and a response to why #3 is valid.

                          There is no doubt that Keynes believes that government intervention could be a benefit if done at the right time and in the right way (we agree on #1 and 2 it seems.) So, I'll let that part go.

                          On to #3. If you listen to today's liberals you will hear a sense that they suggested that Keynes said that the government is the primary driver of an economic model. It is where you hear calls for economic micromanagement on the scale we see today. The truth is in his books 'The Great Slump of 1930' and 'The Means to Prosperity' Keynes clearly states that the main driver of the economy is the private sector and it should be incentivized based on where we are in the economic cycle.

                          In short Keynes advocated for periods of tax reductions. Keynes was first to say "high tax rates defeat their own object" and “given sufficient time to gather the fruits, a reduction of taxation will run a better chance, than an increase, of balancing a [fiscal] budget.” Now, does that sound to you like an advocate for tax increases or anything contradictory to #3? Think hard... then answer if you really believe Keynes would put forth what Obama has or that Keynes was a socialist.

                          In 'The Means to Prosperity' Keynes explained that high tax rates destroy capital formation and limit the options for business ventures. He knew back then that higher prices to create artificial profit margins had limited time and in the end limited sales. Does that sound socialist to you?

                          Who do you think was the motivation for JKF to say "It is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high today and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise the revenues in the long run is to cut tax rates now?" If your answer is "Austrian style economics," you would be wrong.

                          So about #3. If Keynes knew that to deal with aggregate demand you had to ensure both low interest rates and government spending, it stands to reason that given his take on taxes he would also advocate for getting government out of the way. He knew economic conditions ensured that forward thinking policy only had so long it could be effective and most policy influenced the short term. He knew the economic cycle had too much forces effecting movement and policy would have to change as conditions changed. He also knew what effected both investment and aggregate demand. I.e, that whole "in the long run we are all dead" quote just about everyone gets wrong including the USPOL'er using the quote in his signature line.

                          You should really read these two books for what they say, not what the internet says about them. It is all the evidence I need that his actual words show a series of economic principles incompatible with modern liberal thinking on economic management and the role of government. It is also why I know we have never really tried it.

                          Now if you want to discuss long term low interest rates we can do that too, but it was not Keynesian when it was done for so long before the crash.

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