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Bye Bye Peak Oil.

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  • Bye Bye Peak Oil.

    Seems the problem of "Peak Oil" has gone away. Oil production can exceede projected growth in demand. Bad news for lots of climate change activists and alternate energy developers.

    We are going to use every drop we can pump out of the earth.

    Peak Oil No Longer Seems Likely, But That Causes Problems for Climate Policy | TIME.com

  • #2
    Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

    Unless you think there is an unlimited amount of oil there will be a point where demand exceeds supply.

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    • #3
      Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

      Originally posted by PeterUK75 View Post
      Unless you think there is an unlimited amount of oil there will be a point where demand exceeds supply.
      That is certainly true. However there is currently more in the ground than has been pumped to date and ability for projected growth in demand to be met. This pushes peak oil far down the road economically and politically except of course for poetential impact of oil use on the ecology.
      Last edited by JDJarvis; 05-15-2013, 05:44 AM.

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      • #4
        Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

        PeterUK75
        Unless you think there is an unlimited amount of oil there will be a point where demand exceeds supply.
        Anyone that worries about long-term resource depletion should read the seminal work on the issue - The Ultimate Resource by Prof. Julian Simon

        We will never run out of oil (unless government's excessively interfere in the proper functioning of markets). Basically, long before we would ever "run out" of any resource, the price of that commodity would start to rise, creating incentives for both conservation, efficiencies, utilization of other resources that were not cost-competitive when the other commodity was cheaper, and finally development of new technologies to find substitutes for the uses for which it is put.

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        • #5
          Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

          Originally posted by Marcus1124 View Post
          Anyone that worries about long-term resource depletion should read the seminal work on the issue - The Ultimate Resource by Prof. Julian Simon

          We will never run out of oil (unless government's excessively interfere in the proper functioning of markets). Basically, long before we would ever "run out" of any resource, the price of that commodity would start to rise, creating incentives for both conservation, efficiencies, utilization of other resources that were not cost-competitive when the other commodity was cheaper, and finally development of new technologies to find substitutes for the uses for which it is put.
          Agreed. A proper functioning market works like that, and government interference causes the market not to react cleanly and clearly, i.e. government muddies the waters of the free marketplace.

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          • #6
            Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

            eohrnberger
            Agreed. A proper functioning market works like that, and government interference causes the market not to react cleanly and clearly, i.e. government muddies the waters of the free marketplace.
            As the great economist Milton Friedman once said, if you were to put the government in charge of the Sahara desert, soon you would have a sand shortage.

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            • #7
              Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

              What a FRACKING waste

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              • #8
                Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

                Originally posted by Marcus1124 View Post
                Anyone that worries about long-term resource depletion should read the seminal work on the issue - The Ultimate Resource by Prof. Julian Simon

                We will never run out of oil (unless government's excessively interfere in the proper functioning of markets). Basically, long before we would ever "run out" of any resource, the price of that commodity would start to rise, creating incentives for both conservation, efficiencies, utilization of other resources that were not cost-competitive when the other commodity was cheaper, and finally development of new technologies to find substitutes for the uses for which it is put.
                But that misses one major point. We may never run out, due to supply demand controlling prices, but if the cost of energy goes past a certain point, the economy that is based upon fossil fuels, oil in this case, can literally crash and burn. Much of the stagnation of the 70s was due to the tripling of energy costs, and this hurt the US economy, as the price of energy is so important. The US did so well for so long because of cheap oil. I used to buy gas for 25 cents a gallon in 1969-70. Min wage was 1.65 What percentage of min wage is used for a gallon of gas today? Much more than when I paid 25 cents and min wage was 1.65 an hour.

                One thing that one should never forget is that the modern world, industrialized nations and modern civilization itself is the Fossil Fuel Civilization. It would not be here like it is today without fossil fuels. If we suddenly lost fossil fuels tomorrow, the entire world would crash economically into a new and modern condition akin to the Dark Ages in some respects. That is how important fossil fuels are to the modern world. We are literally fossil fuel dependent. And fossil fuels are finite, and we will use them up until they become too pricey to use.

                It seems to me that some people really are only concerned about their own generation, and don't even think about americans in 2200 A.D. We don't like to look ahead, if by doing so it might affect the status quo we have become accustomed to. And those that scoff and laugh at alternative energy, something that will have to replace fossil fuels at some point in time, well those scoffers are evolutionary dead ins, if not for the people that do think about the future and fossil fuels and alternative energy sources that could replace the dependence upon fossil fuels.

                We need to face reality and understand the need for future energy. But I don't think the termite who is eating up the house cares about the house. He can go to the next house. We don't have a next house, at least so far.

                I know a guy who isn't concerned at all about future energy sources. He says that he will be dead within 20 to 30 years and as long as he can make it till then with his fossil fuels, he really couldn't care less. He isn't alone in that belief. If you then add in the people who think we will always have fossil fuels, so no big deal, that is quite the size group. LOL

                Are cons in these two groups? Why take the chance on the free market solving such a great problem, when by the time that they would do that, it would be too late, perhaps. Why risk it with the free market developing alternative energy sources in a timely manner? They are only concerned with profits, short termed. This attitude is dangerous when it comes to energy.

                But perhaps we have in secret some alien source of dirt cheap energy, obtained from ETs, but the fossil fuel boys won't let it be revealed. They couldn't make money from it. This is the only situation in which not being concerned about future energy sources would be acceptable. But I wouldn't place any bets on such fantasy.

                Anyways no matter how much oil is found, prices will never be like they once were, even if we have an over supply. 21st century capitalism will not allow that. The competition that created the gas wars of my youth will never be here again. That's 20th century capitalism. Business no longer is expected to be moral, or concerned with social responsibility, and instead follow Uncle Miltie like grateful sheep. When Uncle Miltie made capitalistic greed acceptable again and reassured them the only reason for their existence was maxing out profits, well that has deep societal costs, and society will pay those in one form or the other. It's the cause effect universe at work.

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                • #9
                  Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

                  This strays from the topic of the thread:

                  Bluedoggy, when was the 20th century era of companies with social responsibility? Was it when tobbaco companies denied their products could be linked to cancer? Was it when car companies refused to install seat-belts as standard equipment because they might make people think cars were unsafe? Was it when factories were pouring poison into rivers and the air on a regular basis? When was this golden age of socially responsible business?

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                  • #10
                    Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

                    Peak oil is too far in the future to worry about now. Given the advanced drilling techniques it looks like peak oil is probably 200 years away. Oil will be largely displaced before then. There are technologies now to replace a lot of it, but why? We should use the most economical energy source available, and that is fossil fuel.

                    Over 100 years ago people were worried about running out of coal. We are burning a lot more of it now than they were then with no end in sight. Good thing they didn't cripple their economies in an attempt to save some coal for us!

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                    • #11
                      Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

                      Originally posted by Brexx View Post
                      Peak oil is too far in the future to worry about now. Given the advanced drilling techniques it looks like peak oil is probably 200 years away. Oil will be largely displaced before then. There are technologies now to replace a lot of it, but why? We should use the most economical energy source available, and that is fossil fuel.

                      Over 100 years ago people were worried about running out of coal. We are burning a lot more of it now than they were then with no end in sight. Good thing they didn't cripple their economies in an attempt to save some coal for us!
                      That may be true, that we have 200 years left before we run out, but it may become very expensive to use as an energy source. And we must not forget that using it as an energy source is far from its only use. There are so many things made from fossil fuels, like fertilizer, plastics, insecticides, with so many more modern civilization products using fossil fuel as well. It has been said factually that the modern world was made possible by fossil fuels, and we could not be here without them. And not just its use for energy production.

                      Then of course you have the pollution from burning fossil fuels, just look at the air in some Chinese cities, and we still will eventually see a developed Africa who will burn and use those fuels as china has.

                      So the question that should be asked is what will it take to get off of fossil resources? How long will it take? Is it possible to produced the energy needed for modern civ. using alternative energy sources? How early should we start in trying to replace them? Should we wait until they are almost depleted? Should we leave it up to the free market to supply them in a timely manner? Is the fossil fuel market that would be competed against, is that really a free market today? Do fossil fuel companies want alternative energy, that is cheaper? Will they try to protect their own means of generating wealth?

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                      • #12
                        Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

                        Originally posted by JDJarvis View Post
                        This strays from the topic of the thread:

                        Bluedoggy, when was the 20th century era of companies with social responsibility? Was it when tobbaco companies denied their products could be linked to cancer? Was it when car companies refused to install seat-belts as standard equipment because they might make people think cars were unsafe? Was it when factories were pouring poison into rivers and the air on a regular basis? When was this golden age of socially responsible business?
                        I remember when corporations that built factories in my area exhibited this thing called social responsibility. Even their PR pamphlets emphasized how they saw themselves as part of the community, and they chose to employ americans when even then if they could have got the right trade agreements to allow offshoring, they saw themselves differently than what Uncle Milton said they should be concerned with.

                        But you are absolutely correct that there have been times when the pursuit of profits has soiled America, literally. And no doubt that if not for the gov't stepping and and representing the best interests of the People, and regulating this bad behavior who knows what sort of America we would be living in today.

                        Yet we used to have corporations that exhibited more social responsibility than today. Yet it has never been to a great degree, so we are speaking of degrees here. If not, Uncle Miltie would have never mentioned it as he was voicing his economic ideology that business heard and implemented. He was aware of this thing called social responsibility and from what I can tell didn't think it belonged in business. Only profits matter.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

                          Just because there was a total failure at predicting when Peak Oil will occur, does not mean we can ignore the consequences of when it does. Just saying, a little too early to break out the champagne and claim victory.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

                            Peak oil as in the economy ruining calamity only a couple decades away has seemingly been dismissed. There's a lot of oil out there and we can and will pump it up. It presents aproblem of course as it is unlikely to be as cheap in the past it may not in the relatively immediate future be expensive enough for serious exploitation of alternative energy in the U.S. outr government and business isn't good at long term planning.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Bye Bye Peak Oil.

                              Originally posted by Sluggo View Post
                              Just because there was a total failure at predicting when Peak Oil will occur, does not mean we can ignore the consequences of when it does. Just saying, a little too early to break out the champagne and claim victory.
                              IMO there are just too many folks who don't really understand the importance that fossil fuels have, that the modern world is basically a parasite upon it. That without them the modern world as we know it would have never developed. It would be a much different world without fossil fuels.

                              And there are too many people who will always take fossil fuels for granted, until they get a very rude awakening from their intellectual sleep. The ability for civilization to replace fossil fuels is the biggest issue affecting the modern world. And I do not believe that we have alternative sources developed enough today to actually do that. The free market will only address it when it is too late. The impact of a lack of supply of fossil fuels may not come gradually, but suddenly. Lots of factors involved in that. If it comes suddenly you could literally see modern civ crash into another sort of dark age, literally.

                              And that is why investment has to be made today, because the depletion of fossil fuels is certainly a given, inevitable. The nation that is prepared for this will survive, not sink into chaos. And if we only depend upon the free market to accomplish this, we are taking one helluva gamble with billions of human lives.

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