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About That Global Warming...

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  • Originally posted by radcentr View Post
    Yes, it was an attempt at humor, but it points to the method humans used for millennia, when faced with fading coastlines: Leave that area, and settle elsewhere. Why should we bail out a crumbling old urban area -especially a port city? This makes little sense, especially when we are entering a phase when we maintain prosperity while actually shrinking our population.

    As for solar energy, Obama made two mistakes: Throwing money at a problem, which is now barely getting out of it's "beta phase". Failures are guaranteed in the industry, and are best handled by those engineering and producing within the market, and those academics studying the new science at the various universities and technical schools. Between the research and development in the US, and master plans in "democratically challenged" countries like China, solar energy will supply a much bigger portion of energy than it does today.
    Are we really entering a phase of shrinking population? In order to achieve that we would have to cut off both legal and illegal immigration. How likely is that to happen? The left wants to throw the borders wide open it seems. Nobody seems to be happy with shrinking populations. The countries that are experiencing it, like Japan and France, are introducing measures to encourage their people to have more children.

    מה מכילות החדשות?


    • Originally posted by redrover View Post

      Can't you already hear Trump when he has to take a gondola to get to Trump tower? The democrats knew about this problem for years why didn't Obama do something about it?
      According to James Hansen half of Manhattan should be under water by now. Instead it is no different than when he started making that prediction back in the 80s. He should be a laughing stock, but the true believers still believe him.

      מה מכילות החדשות?


      • Originally posted by Brexx View Post

        According to James Hansen half of Manhattan should be under water by now. Instead it is no different than when he started making that prediction back in the 80s. He should be a laughing stock, but the true believers still believe him.
        You do know they have ways to measure this don't you? https://www.simivalleyacorn.com/arti...levels-rising/

        מה מכילות החדשות?


        • Originally posted by Brexx View Post

          According to James Hansen half of Manhattan should be under water by now. Instead it is no different than when he started making that prediction back in the 80s. He should be a laughing stock, but the true believers still believe him.
          Hucksters on the left and right always depend on panic to generate more income. If it happens in 100 years, who cares? But if it "might" happen in only 30 years? We're in business, send funds to save the coast and/or the Dem Party.

          The pitch from the right is more reasonable. We can forget about it, until a few buildings are affected. Then we'll invent some reason to make the nation (federal revenue) pay for protecting billionaires' real estate investments, when it would be much more economical to just abandon parts of Manhattan "as needed", whenever the private sector and NY metro gov't. can't foot the bill. Oh wait, did I say the righty pitch was more "reasonable"? I meant to say it was more insidious.

          מה מכילות החדשות?


          • Originally posted by Brexx View Post

            Are we really entering a phase of shrinking population? In order to achieve that we would have to cut off both legal and illegal immigration. How likely is that to happen? The left wants to throw the borders wide open it seems. Nobody seems to be happy with shrinking populations. The countries that are experiencing it, like Japan and France, are introducing measures to encourage their people to have more children.
            Native-born population is either shrinking or flat in most developed countries right now, not just Japan and France. The developed countries are not happy with shrinking populations because they have yet to reason (let alone) plan a social and economic replacement for the "growth and consumption" economic model that we follow now. We replaced a mercantilism economy with capitalism inside a "free market" structure. We can adapt to replace a growth-dependent economy, just as we replaced mercantilism. That means the the old order needs to accept it or step aside, just like royalty had to accept or step aside for capitalism well over 100 years ago. Uncontrolled immigration will also become a thing of the past, within the next 100 years. The pop growth projections (fairly accurate for a few decades, now) indicate that even under-developed nations will achieve flat or declining populations, with few exceptions, in that time span.

            מה מכילות החדשות?


            • Originally posted by redrover View Post

              You do know they have ways to measure this don't you? https://www.simivalleyacorn.com/arti...levels-rising/
              The alarmists have proven to be a total failure at "measuring" the future. In your article they predict a 16 inch sea level rise by 2060. That would be 2.6 inches per year. Current sea level rate of rise is ~ .12 inch per year. Sea level rise is going to have to get a move on in a hurry to make that prediction happen. It would immediately have to increase by a factor of 22 and stay there for the next 42 years. How much money would you bet on that?

              מה מכילות החדשות?


              • Originally posted by radcentr View Post
                Hucksters on the left and right always depend on panic to generate more income. If it happens in 100 years, who cares? But if it "might" happen in only 30 years? We're in business, send funds to save the coast and/or the Dem Party.

                The pitch from the right is more reasonable. We can forget about it, until a few buildings are affected. Then we'll invent some reason to make the nation (federal revenue) pay for protecting billionaires' real estate investments, when it would be much more economical to just abandon parts of Manhattan "as needed", whenever the private sector and NY metro gov't. can't foot the bill. Oh wait, did I say the righty pitch was more "reasonable"? I meant to say it was more insidious.
                Nobody is going to build a levee until there is an obvious need for one. I think that is reasonable. Predictions are notorious for being wrong.

                מה מכילות החדשות?


                • Originally posted by radcentr View Post
                  Native-born population is either shrinking or flat in most developed countries right now, not just Japan and France. The developed countries are not happy with shrinking populations because they have yet to reason (let alone) plan a social and economic replacement for the "growth and consumption" economic model that we follow now. We replaced a mercantilism economy with capitalism inside a "free market" structure. We can adapt to replace a growth-dependent economy, just as we replaced mercantilism. That means the the old order needs to accept it or step aside, just like royalty had to accept or step aside for capitalism well over 100 years ago. Uncontrolled immigration will also become a thing of the past, within the next 100 years. The pop growth projections (fairly accurate for a few decades, now) indicate that even under-developed nations will achieve flat or declining populations, with few exceptions, in that time span.
                  There is no way to deal with the problems of a shrinking population. Too many old people, and the young people not having nearly enough children. Its a death spiral. There is no "model" for dealing with it.

                  מה מכילות החדשות?


                  • Originally posted by Brexx View Post

                    Nobody is going to build a levee until there is an obvious need for one. I think that is reasonable. Predictions are notorious for being wrong.
                    The only reason to build levees under today's conditions is to protect valuable agricultural land. Humans are mobile creatures and can relocate dwellings (and business) away from coastal areas. This isn't Holland enjoying a promising future for expansionist plans (growth economy for a growing population). Good news is, humans have already demonstrated their ability to rebuild multiple times after abandoning dangerous coastal areas.

                    That mobility isn't generally part of our current leadership's plan, however. Link:
                    The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has announced Texas will receive just over $5 billion for long-term rebuilding efforts. Texas leaders would like more. They have estimated the state needs as much as $121 billion — and they want as few limitations on how to spend that money as possible.
                    ...
                    Buyouts: After three flood events in three years, lots of Houstonians are talking about buyouts. But as we discovered through our investigation with ProPublica in November, buyouts aren’t likely to be a large-scale solution to the city’s flooding problems, mainly because of a lack of money and narrow criteria that disqualify many homeowners who are willing to sell.
                    https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01...bout-recovery/

                    My prediction is hardly a mumbo-jumbo attempt to peek into the future; it is a pessimistic observation of "business as usual".

                    מה מכילות החדשות?


                    • Originally posted by Brexx View Post

                      There is no way to deal with the problems of a shrinking population. Too many old people, and the young people not having nearly enough children. Its a death spiral. There is no "model" for dealing with it.
                      It only becomes a death spiral if depopulation fails to break itself before extinction. There are multiple examples of stable populations of species in the world ("ecosystem homeostasis"), so there is no reason to simply discount the possibility that humans can achieve a non-growth strategy. Keep in mind that "no growth" can yet maintain our ability to change and adapt, as well as improve our condition.

                      Perhaps it is the old way of thinking about optimum conditions for creating a family, that leads people to believe only in a "grow or die" strategy. Available frontiers with plentiful natural (and unclaimed) resources are very scarce nowadays, therefore the simplistic growth-only strategy will soon be abandoned by most people.

                      מה מכילות החדשות?


                      • Originally posted by radcentr View Post
                        The only reason to build levees under today's conditions is to protect valuable agricultural land. Humans are mobile creatures and can relocate dwellings (and business) away from coastal areas. This isn't Holland enjoying a promising future for expansionist plans (growth economy for a growing population). Good news is, humans have already demonstrated their ability to rebuild multiple times after abandoning dangerous coastal areas.

                        That mobility isn't generally part of our current leadership's plan, however. Link:

                        https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01...bout-recovery/

                        My prediction is hardly a mumbo-jumbo attempt to peek into the future; it is a pessimistic observation of "business as usual".
                        I imagine that as the seas continue their slow but relentless rise, and in some areas, the land continues to sink, we will see levees in some areas and evacuations in others.

                        מה מכילות החדשות?


                        • Originally posted by radcentr View Post
                          It only becomes a death spiral if depopulation fails to break itself before extinction. There are multiple examples of stable populations of species in the world ("ecosystem homeostasis"), so there is no reason to simply discount the possibility that humans can achieve a non-growth strategy. Keep in mind that "no growth" can yet maintain our ability to change and adapt, as well as improve our condition.

                          Perhaps it is the old way of thinking about optimum conditions for creating a family, that leads people to believe only in a "grow or die" strategy. Available frontiers with plentiful natural (and unclaimed) resources are very scarce nowadays, therefore the simplistic growth-only strategy will soon be abandoned by most people.
                          A stable population is quite a different thing than a shrinking one.

                          מה מכילות החדשות?


                          • Originally posted by Brexx View Post

                            I imagine that as the seas continue their slow but relentless rise, and in some areas, the land continues to sink, we will see levees in some areas and evacuations in others.
                            I'll believe that when we see just one example in Houston. That area should never have been settled in contiguous (unbroken) fashion, since it was originally a mix of coastal swamp and slightly higher ground. A classic "Florida scam" made infamous in the 1920's, when individuals were sold uninhabitable land, assuming that since it was Florida, it was going to be some kind of standard-issue, tropical paradise. That thievery was actually going on for decades before (including Houston), they just perfected the crime by the time Florida sharks sold their swamp lots.

                            We'll see too little evacuation, and a lot of the same old scams -trying to make very expensive-to-inhabit land barely legal to sell, using as much taxpayer money as possible.

                            מה מכילות החדשות?


                            • Originally posted by radcentr View Post
                              I'll believe that when we see just one example in Houston. That area should never have been settled in contiguous (unbroken) fashion, since it was originally a mix of coastal swamp and slightly higher ground. A classic "Florida scam" made infamous in the 1920's, when individuals were sold uninhabitable land, assuming that since it was Florida, it was going to be some kind of standard-issue, tropical paradise. That thievery was actually going on for decades before (including Houston), they just perfected the crime by the time Florida sharks sold their swamp lots.

                              We'll see too little evacuation, and a lot of the same old scams -trying to make very expensive-to-inhabit land barely legal to sell, using as much taxpayer money as possible.
                              A lot of taxpayer money is being thrown at the climate change scam. I'd rather see it spent on levees when they become necessary - a real solution to a problem that actually exists.

                              מה מכילות החדשות?


                              • Originally posted by Brexx View Post

                                A lot of taxpayer money is being thrown at the climate change scam. I'd rather see it spent on levees when they become necessary - a real solution to a problem that actually exists.
                                That's an inadequate solution to a problem that actually exists. Rebuilding refineries (and the residential areas to support them) makes sense in a location that is more economical. Shipping costs on water (from canals to high seas) is relatively cheap, so much of Houston's refinery capacity can be distributed inland. The hypothesis is that levees built to protect inland (as well as higher altitude) will be much more effective and less expensive in the longer run. That means each area should be abandoned or chosen for protection from rising seas, based mainly on economics, not tradition. As population falls to a new plateau, that frees up resources (fe agriculture) inland, that can be set aside for urban or other use. If it is more economical over a 100 year span to locate inland, instead of building levees, that should be the strategy for spending public money. In short, some coastal areas will only be saved because it is economical for the entire state economy to do so over the long run, not because limited interests want to stay put at any cost (not borne by their finances).

                                That same strategy should apply, without the strategic infrastructure complication of Houston refineries, in all other coastal areas. Levees have to prove their worth over the long term, and some have failed. Like much of the levee and other "improved" flood control measures in New Orleans. 12 years after the Katrina disaster, NO was still flooded by heavy rains. As heavier rains and rising sea levels become the new normal in some areas, it will be necessary to change where we settle, rather than just build higher levees (or bigger pumps) and stay put in every case.

                                מה מכילות החדשות?

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