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How will the US cope with not being top dog?

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  • Blue Doggy
    replied
    Originally posted by CYDdharta View Post
    We may have to ask ourselves this, but it doesn't look like it'll be any time soon. As I've maintained, China today is just the Japan of the 70s and 80s;



    http://nationalinterest.org/print/fe...-economy-14753
    China has the ability to move in the intelligent direction, and given the ability of a dictatorship to turn on a dime, they could create themselves the only capitalist economic model that insures growth going into the future spanning many decades. Which is what they need, and the only thing that will serve them.

    And of course it would be to emulate and improve the FDR structured economy and environment. You start turning the Chinese into something resembling a middle class, by paying them enough to buy what they are making. Then you bring on the advertising that ties self value to the number of consumer widgets you own, and have competition in providing those widgets. Like the US is, China has the population that is large enough to have this economic model. And like the US, China would create a large middle class there, and an upper class which would be relatively rich to the others in china, but would there would not be such a great disparity in income. And this was how we did it, but you have to regulate the capitalists, for they get to a point where their greed removes any allegiance they have to their home nation. And they forsake social responsibility to the rest of the society they come from and live in.

    China would have to protect her own industry which is helping to enlarge their middle class, for now they are paying wages high enough to allow consumption, and consumption of course is what drives employment. They would have to have a sound banking system, so a regulated banking system that removes the ability of the greed of sociopaths, to crash their economy. And of course, they would never create a revolving door between their big bankers or other big private business interests, and gov't employment. They must maintain learned experts in the positions that structures the economic model that are not elite top dogs, who tend to act only in their own self interests. So China would have to have men of integrity who's allegiance lay with sustaining by intelligence an economy is allowing the greatest number of their people to thrive by their work of hands and minds in these regulatory positions.

    The Chinese could even improve on that model, for if they looked and dug, they could find all of the failures, or weaknesses in our old model which could be corrected and improved, while the goal being to structure it so the economic engine was there primarily to provide decent standards of living for the max number of its citizens. That just seems to me to be the only intelligent way to look at a nation's economy.

    But understand, I think this will never happen. Yet if they were smart, and had the interest of the people of china in mind, this is exactly what they would do, to emulate a historical proven economic model. Use your own people to make what they consume, encourage the consumption, come out with new products that will help drive it, and pay your people enough to buy what they are making. Sounds like such simple common sense, yet there are powerful forces who would fight it hard. Those people who see that this model would put a limitation on the wealth they could pile up, sitting up there at the apex of the economic pyramid. Not room for many up there, just a few as history proves. China should take a look at American history, being what we once were, what our domestic economy was.

    Leave a comment:


  • CYDdharta
    replied
    Originally posted by PeterUK75 View Post
    To be fair China's economic growth has been the fastest and largest in history so it's not that hard to understand why they may not have a future plan in place. They've gone from having virtually no middle class to having hundreds of millions of them which can't exactly be easy to forecast for and they've never experienced boom and bust cycles like we have in the UK and US.

    Both our countries have known both boom and bust and they're just starting on the road to knowing how to react to an economy that isn't growing massively all the time.

    The reason I think China will overtake the US is simply that they have 1.35 Billion people and many of them are becoming consumers who will make up a larger market than the US and so it's just a natural shift in economic activity rather than being anything the US is doing wrong.

    They have a huge population, but that's more of a liability for them than anything. Their income inequality is off the charts. Very few Chinese can afford to buy even the junk they send to us.

    Well, in the first place you have to remember that China is very much a Third World country. Of the 1.3 billion Chinese, well over 1.1 billion have a standard living on the order of Nigeria. If you go to Shanghai and drive to Pudong, you can get the illusion that this is a European or American country, but just walk blocks away from the centre and you’ll see a very different China.

    Secondly, the Chinese economy is a hostage of the foreign international system, but primarily of the American economy. China is incapable of domestic consumption on the order of production. So, when the United States catches cold, China gets pneumonia and that really is an important thing to understand – that China does not have an economy as we understand it in the sense of substantial domestic consumption. The Chinese economy is overwhelmingly export-oriented and therefore China is a hostage to its consumers.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/thadde...b_8007006.html


    George Friedman has written fairly extensively about the rise and coming collapse of China in his books The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade. So far, his predictions have been quite accurate, although his timing has been a bit off. The things he has predicted are happening faster than what he had thought.

    Leave a comment:


  • radcentr
    replied
    If the Chinese adapt to a static/slow growth economy, they may find a way to avoid the boom/bust cycle. Sure, the communist system of 2k state "economists" trying to command an economy that would be better run by 200 million operators (in the gov't. and private sector) has a long road to travel. The advantage they have is a lack of blind faith in capitalism as we know it. Once they gain more humility in their treatment of communism, they might be able to engineer a much more stable replacement of Big/Sexy capitalism.

    Leave a comment:


  • PeterUK75
    replied
    To be fair China's economic growth has been the fastest and largest in history so it's not that hard to understand why they may not have a future plan in place. They've gone from having virtually no middle class to having hundreds of millions of them which can't exactly be easy to forecast for and they've never experienced boom and bust cycles like we have in the UK and US.

    Both our countries have known both boom and bust and they're just starting on the road to knowing how to react to an economy that isn't growing massively all the time.

    The reason I think China will overtake the US is simply that they have 1.35 Billion people and many of them are becoming consumers who will make up a larger market than the US and so it's just a natural shift in economic activity rather than being anything the US is doing wrong.

    Leave a comment:


  • CYDdharta
    replied
    We may have to ask ourselves this, but it doesn't look like it'll be any time soon. As I've maintained, China today is just the Japan of the 70s and 80s;

    Last Monday, at the conclusion of China’s closed-door Central Economic Work Conference, Beijing’s public relations machine went into high gear to show that the country’s leaders had come up with a viable plan to rescue the economy.

    Unfortunately, they do not now have such a plan. In reality, they decided to continue strategies that both created China’s current predicament and failed this year to restart growth.

    The severity of China’s economic problems—and the inability to implement long-term solutions—mean almost all geopolitical assumptions about tomorrow are wrong. Virtually everyone today sees China as a major power in the future. Yet the country’s extraordinary economic difficulties will result in a collapse or a long-term decline, and either outcome suggests China will return to the ranks of weak states.
    http://nationalinterest.org/print/fe...-economy-14753

    Leave a comment:


  • Blue Doggy
    replied
    Originally posted by JDJarvis View Post

    Vietnnam and China had 2 borer wars following our pullout and on top of showing "The DominoTheory" was a fetid lie it also showed (at the time) China was a paper tiger. Sinnce then we've allowed our wealthy to pump a fortune into China, they might be able to win a border war these days.
    We have literally created the most powerful china, that has ever existed. Ike is rolling over in his grave. China may be using capitalism but they are still governed by communists Even their Unions are ran by the communist party, which means they are a union in name only.

    We, a used to be democratic republic, which is at odds with communism, enriched and basically created the rise of china, a communist state. And the republic would have not ever have done that. So if the republic did not do it, what did? The oligarchy. The oligarchy is only concerned about the profits of our elites. The banking cabal first, and the MNCs second. The elites of this nation are involved in the banking cabal, and they own the majority of shares in the MNCs. China had 1.5 billion very poor people, who had suffered even famine and starvation, and being ruled over by the communist party, they would work for whatever our MNCs wanted them to work for. In exchange for this slave labor, our MNCs had to hand over to the communists all of the manufacturing tech that has been developed in this nation, with some of it being protected as trade secrets. So the Chinese could take this, and move down the street, build an identical factory, without ever having to spend money and time, and brain work, a freebie, in exchange for allowing our banking cabal and MNCs to make profits like they were not allowed to do in the US. Not allowed, because this nation would not allow slave labor, to such a degree.

    And so, the largest consumer driven, consumption based economy in the world, was used to allow china to rise, American buying what they once made here, and then using our service sector working people to enrich the MNCs and china. So the people of the US, financed this. Sent their money to an enemy of democracy, which was a scheme that was only to enrich our elites greater. Sure, it is basic treason to enrich and allow the rise of an enemy to democracy, but our elites and our politicians have an allegiance to no nation, only to money and personal power. They should all be hung by the neck until dead, if we had anyone who actually cared.

    That china would in such short order come to the point that they would surpass the economy of the US, and the size of the economy is what makes any nation powerful, was allowed, because of nothing more than the greed of the elites. So, this greed, created a much more powerful enemy, which is communist. They do not like us, they see us as an enemy, and yet this is what the greed of the elites will do, for they own allegiance to no nation. And our politicians, beginning with the GOP, then joined by the Clinton democrats, put this nation in this position. It really is treason, and no president would have allowed it until Reagan came into office and began dismantling the economy of our republic, turning it in the process into an oligarchy, for the dismantling allowed the elites to once again rule over our gov't, that is supposed to be by and for the people.

    Now this is exactly what has happened over the past 35 years. And it is irrefutable, for all of the hard evidence is there, to peruse. MSM will never mention it, nor a treasonous politician. Trump has talked about it, and he is probably a dead man if he gets close to winning, or does win. That is, if they cannot castrate him, using congress, to turn him into a totally paralysed president. He would have to have a tremendous political movement behind him, to vote out the treasonous men in DC and replace them with non treasonous men. But if that were to happen, Trump, or sanders, would end up dead, in some way or the other. But even that would not convince lots of dumbed down americans that we have a faux republic, and actually are living under fascism of the oligarchy. And the oligarchs are the rich elites, some of the same families that tried a coup against FDR, and their puppets in both parties. That coup in the 30s, was done by some of our elites, and those families are still here. That is where the power lies, but were pushed back enough by FDR to bring prosperity to working people, and a sound banking system. We should not be surprised that the GOPhers allowed these people, to take over again. And they did it in part by pulling out the faux socialism card, to fear monger, even as they were creating the new oligarchy, which is capitalistic fascism. And the American voters, swallowed it hook line and sinker, and still think there is some great communist conspiracy, when it was a fascist conspiracy all along. But when you are so ill educated as to not comprehend what real socialism or communism is, it is so easy to be duped by ruses.


    And so, as it is historically a given, rich entitled elites will destroy the America created by men who tried to rise above the power and greed found in the sociopathic elites, and who we had presidents with integrity like Ike who warned us against these people, and yet it has been for naught. And it does not help when you have a political party that has conditioned its voters to believe that any attack or critique on these sociopathic rich elites is socialism, envy, class warfare. And the fact that human beings could be so easily duped means we are not even smart enough to save ourselves and this nation. So, we are doomed. For up until this election cycle, the GOP voters have fully embraced globalization, but only because they thought the working people should not be paid enough to live on, or prosper, because it was not high tech jobs, but just labor. And that it really hurt our elites too much to pay a living wage for factory work.
    Last edited by Blue Doggy; 12-28-2015, 10:52 AM.

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  • JDJarvis
    replied
    Originally posted by OldmanDan View Post


    Don't know about that, a few years ago the Chinese had a bit of a skirmish with Viet Nam. The Vietnamese were battle savvy and were killing the Chinese at a rate of 4 to 1. When asked about this, a Chinese general said, &quot;Yes, they kill 4 we kill 1. Pretty soon, no more Vietnamese.
    Vietnnam and China had 2 borer wars following our pullout and on top of showing "The DominoTheory" was a fetid lie it also showed (at the time) China was a paper tiger. Sinnce then we've allowed our wealthy to pump a fortune into China, they might be able to win a border war these days.

    Leave a comment:


  • PeterUK75
    replied
    CYDdharta has a point though in that China sending troops and planes to Vietnam is a whole lot easier than trying to invade the UK.
    Firstly there's the simple fact that I highly doubt any country in Europe would give the fleet they send safe harbour so they would be thousands of miles from any resupply and where would they base any combat aircraft as again surely the European countries would block access to their airspace so unless they also invade Iceland they're pretty much screwed.

    As was pointed out the sheer logistics of the operation would be massive and may kill any invasion plan before it even began.

    Leave a comment:


  • OldmanDan
    replied
    Originally posted by CYDdharta View Post


    For the foreseeable future, yes you could easily defend yourself from China if you chose to. It doesn't matter how large the army is, they have to be able to get the troops to the combat zone. Germany had many times the number of troops that the UK did during WWII, but the UK was able to keep the Germans on the other side of the channel. China is 1/2 a world away, the logistics needed for them to invade would be astronomical. They currently don't have anywhere near the military capacity to pose more than a nuisance to the UK.

    Don't know about that, a few years ago the Chinese had a bit of a skirmish with Viet Nam. The Vietnamese were battle savvy and were killing the Chinese at a rate of 4 to 1. When asked about this, a Chinese general said, "Yes, they kill 4 we kill 1. Pretty soon, no more Vietnamese.

    Leave a comment:


  • CYDdharta
    replied
    Originally posted by PeterUK75 View Post

    Do you really expect the UK with a population of less than 65 million to defend itself against China with 1.35bn?
    Even if we spent 100% of our entire public budget China could easily outspend us by orders of magnitude and have enough forces to completely which is why Europe has alliances so we don't need to spend stupid amounts on defence.

    The UK recently decided to spend a bit more on defence and we have one of the best armed forces on earth so saying we can't defend ourselves is completely preposterous.

    The reason we don't spend so much on defence is not because we expect the US to save us but because we aren't geared up for WW3 at all times with the expectation it might start later today.
    By the way I think the UK military could give Russia a pretty good run for it's money with our subs being an obvious and massive threat to any seaborn invasion as the UK has some of them worlds most advanced nuclear powered attack subs.
    Our air force is pretty good defensively and the Eurofighter was designed specifically to combat the Russians so should hopefully be quite good at it I'd think and with the new upgrades to radar and missiles should be even better.
    We've got 2 massive carriers in the finishing straight of being built and we've ordered 144 F-35B's to fly from them so that should be quite handy in a ruckus.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astute-class_submarine
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_...rcraft_carrier

    For the foreseeable future, yes you could easily defend yourself from China if you chose to. It doesn't matter how large the army is, they have to be able to get the troops to the combat zone. Germany had many times the number of troops that the UK did during WWII, but the UK was able to keep the Germans on the other side of the channel. China is 1/2 a world away, the logistics needed for them to invade would be astronomical. They currently don't have anywhere near the military capacity to pose more than a nuisance to the UK.

    Leave a comment:


  • JDJarvis
    replied
    If there were no nukes Egland could beat Russia as long as it didn't try to invade Russia. Russian GDP is pathetic, they are dwarfedby Italy.

    Ruissia is a pygmy compared to the US and Nato allies, we only have t. worry about the nuclear arsenal. Donktbelievethetalkingheadsinthemedia and liars seeking political office the raw numbers don't lie.

    Leave a comment:


  • PeterUK75
    replied
    Originally posted by OldmanDan View Post


    Hitler rose to power when the U.S. was experiencing a great depression. Like it or not, we are a major power in world economics. When America wanes, so do other countries. Other countries can have small military budgets as long as they know they are backed by the U.S. There is not a single European country that could defend itself against China or Russia by themselves.
    Do you really expect the UK with a population of less than 65 million to defend itself against China with 1.35bn?
    Even if we spent 100% of our entire public budget China could easily outspend us by orders of magnitude and have enough forces to completely which is why Europe has alliances so we don't need to spend stupid amounts on defence.

    The UK recently decided to spend a bit more on defence and we have one of the best armed forces on earth so saying we can't defend ourselves is completely preposterous.

    The reason we don't spend so much on defence is not because we expect the US to save us but because we aren't geared up for WW3 at all times with the expectation it might start later today.
    By the way I think the UK military could give Russia a pretty good run for it's money with our subs being an obvious and massive threat to any seaborn invasion as the UK has some of them worlds most advanced nuclear powered attack subs.
    Our air force is pretty good defensively and the Eurofighter was designed specifically to combat the Russians so should hopefully be quite good at it I'd think and with the new upgrades to radar and missiles should be even better.
    We've got 2 massive carriers in the finishing straight of being built and we've ordered 144 F-35B's to fly from them so that should be quite handy in a ruckus.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astute-class_submarine
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_...rcraft_carrier

    Leave a comment:


  • OldmanDan
    replied
    Originally posted by Blue Doggy View Post

    Aggression never stopped. We just chose to impose ourselves if there was money to be made by our oligarchs, or a risk of them losing money. That is the prime driver, overt and covert.

    Do you think that without the American military another European nation would have pulled another Hitler on Europe? I don't.

    A recent world poll, shows that America is the most feared nation, because people do not know who we will invade next over the dollar. A helluva impression to give. We went from being mostly respected with a positive image to this. Because of that 800 pound insane gorilla.

    Hitler rose to power when the U.S. was experiencing a great depression. Like it or not, we are a major power in world economics. When America wanes, so do other countries. Other countries can have small military budgets as long as they know they are backed by the U.S. There is not a single European country that could defend itself against China or Russia by themselves.

    Leave a comment:


  • Blue Doggy
    replied
    Originally posted by OldmanDan View Post
    Did you ever think that maybe other countries are not militarily aggressive because of the 800 lb gorilla in the room?
    Aggression never stopped. We just chose to impose ourselves if there was money to be made by our oligarchs, or a risk of them losing money. That is the prime driver, overt and covert.

    Do you think that without the American military another European nation would have pulled another Hitler on Europe? I don't.

    A recent world poll, shows that America is the most feared nation, because people do not know who we will invade next over the dollar. A helluva impression to give. We went from being mostly respected with a positive image to this. Because of that 800 pound insane gorilla.

    Leave a comment:


  • Blue Doggy
    replied
    Originally posted by JDJarvis View Post
    We'll become China's foreign legion nonce they can buy enough of our politicians. We will fight elements hostile to global trade in the mideast and africa.
    Our oligarchs have been fighting some African nations for years, for they want to keep their local industries, owned by them, and our oligarhcs want to replace them with our MNC factories and pay their workers lower wages than they make now. I read about this last year online, and everyone here can too.

    Leave a comment:

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